Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40605249›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2025

Coronary heart disease and stroke mortality trends in Australia and New Zealand: comparison of official national mortality data and Global Burden of Disease estimates.

Yuehan Zhang, Grace Joshy, Karen Bishop, Tim Adair, Wendy Ho, Katrina Sheehan, Michelle Gourley, Rod Jackson, Mai Nguyen, Emily Banks and 1 more

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Yuehan ZhangNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Grace JoshyNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Karen BishopBurden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Tim AdairNossal Institute for Global Health, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1562-4452
Wendy HoBurden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Katrina SheehanBurden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Michelle GourleyBurden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, Australia.
Rod JacksonSchool of Population Health, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0001-5914-6934
Mai NguyenNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Emily BanksNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-4617-1302
Ellie PaigeNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia 2017742
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRecent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates show increasing cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Australia and New Zealand, prompting concern. This study investigates whether such increases are observed in official national data.

methodsAnnual age-standardized coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality rates for ages 35-84 years in Australia/New Zealand from 2008 to 2018/19 were calculated using official national data and published GBD estimates. Differences in annual mortality rate percentage changes between official data and GBD estimates were calculated separately for each country. Joinpoint regression identified temporal trend changes.

resultsOfficial data showed annual decreases in CHD mortality of 4.9% (95% CI: 4.4%-5.5%) for Australia and 4.2% (3.7%-4.7%) for New Zealand on average; corresponding annual stroke mortality reductions were 4.3% (3.2%-5.3%) for Australia and 3.7% (2.9%-4.5%) for New Zealand. Absolute CHD mortality rates from GBD were substantively higher than from official data (e.g. 104.7 [103.0-106.5] vs 99.0 [97.3-100.7] per 100 000 people, respectively, Australia, 2008). Contrasting with ongoing declining rates using official data, GBD estimates showed slower overall mortality rate declines, recent increases in CHD mortality (e.g. 1.2% [0.2%-2.2%] annual increases from 2016 to 2019 for Australia), and stagnating stroke mortality. Differences are likely explained by GBD's redistribution of ill-defined causes of death and use of projected data after 2016, when national mortality data were unavailable for GBD estimates.

conclusionsCHD and stroke mortality in Australia/New Zealand continue to decline, according to gold-standard official data. Disparities with GBD estimates highlight the need for transparency in reporting GBD methods and care in interpretation and application.

Indexed as

Coronary DiseaseGlobal Burden of DiseaseStrokeAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAustraliaFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMortalityNew Zealandage-standardized mortality ratescardiovascular diseaseGlobal Burden of Disease

Identifiers

PMID40605249
PMCPMC12221867

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.