ArticleBMC public health2025
Burden of kidney cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2036: an age-period-cohort analysis of global burden of disease study 2021.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trends and etiological profile of kidney cancer in China from 1990 to 2023: an analysis of modifiable risk factors and prevention implications using GBD 2023 estimates.International journal of clinical oncology · 2026Review
- Rising burden of fall-induced hip fractures in China: accelerating male-specific trends and persistent gender disparities from Global Burden of Disease 2021.Acta orthopaedica et traumatologica turcica · 2026Article
- The rising tide of opioid use disorder: analyzing 30 years of epidemiological trends and socioeconomic factors in the U.S.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2026Article
- Assessing the disease burden of opioid use disorder in western europe: trends, gender differences, and future directions.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2026Article
- Smoking-attributable ischemic heart disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036: A retrospective analysis and forecasting study.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- Trends and regional disparities in maternal hypertensive disorders among women of childbearing age: a global burden of disease analysis from 1990 to 2021.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Article
- Epidemiological study of thyroid cancer at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021: an analysis derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Article
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10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveThis study aimed to describe the temporal trends and risk factors of kidney cancer (KC) burden from 1990 to 2021, evaluate its age, period, and cohort effects, and project the disease burden over the next 15 years.
methodsData were derived from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in KC prevalence and mortality, while age-period-cohort analysis was applied to estimate age, period, and cohort effects. We extended the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the disease burden of KC from 2022 to 2036.
resultsIn 2021, the number of incident KC cases in China reached 65,799 (4.62 cases per 100,000 total population). Additionally, KC resulted in 24,867 deaths (1.75 deaths per 100,000 total population).The incidence rate of KC continued to rise from 1.38 per 100,000 in 1990 to 4.62 per 100,000 in 2021, with males consistently exceeding females in case numbers. Meanwhile, KC mortality rose from 0.77 per 100,000 in 1990 to 1.75 per 100,000 in 2021.Throughout the study period, the average annual percent changes (AAPC) in incidence and mortality were 3.92% and 2.61%, respectively. Males exhibited higher prevalence and mortality of KC. In the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis, the risk of KC was observed to increase with advancing age in the age dimension. Period effects analysis revealed an overall downward trajectory in all age groups. Cohort-level analysis indicated that early birth cohorts had higher susceptibility, with those born before 1920-1925 exhibiting a higher risk profile that subsequently decreased over time. Smoking and high body mass index (BMI) were the primary risk factors for KC-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality, while the contribution of occupational exposure to trichloroethylene was relatively minor. By 2036, the age-standardized incidence and mortality of KC are projected to rise to 4.58 and 1.31 per 100,000, respectively.
conclusionTo alleviate the disease burden of KC, comprehensive strategies are required, including risk factor prevention in primary care settings, KC screening for the elderly and high-risk populations, and access to high-quality medical services.
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