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ArticleScientific reports2025

Spatio-temporal characteristics and multivariate recurrence period of agricultural drought in Northwestern China.

Kai Feng, Shile Wang, Yingying Wang, Yanbin Li, Tianliang Jiang, Shengzhi Huang, Fei Wang, Xiaoling Su, Zezhong Zhang

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Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Kai FengCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.
Shile WangCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.
Yingying WangCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China. wangyingying@ncwu.edu.cn.
Yanbin LiCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.
Tianliang JiangInstitute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China.
Shengzhi HuangCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.
Fei WangCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.
Xiaoling SuCollege of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, 712100, China.
Zezhong ZhangCollege of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.

Funding

National Key R&D Program of China 2023YFC3006603National Natural Science Fund of China 42301024National Natural Science Fund of China 52079111National Natural Science Fund of China 52179015Science and Technology Projects in Henan Province 222102320043Science and Technology Projects in Henan Province 242102321114
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Agricultural drought poses significant challenges to food production and ecosystem sustainability. The evolution of drought and its recurrence period feature are important for drought mitigation and risk management. This study aims to evaluate agricultural drought using the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) based on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) products, and extract drought variables using a three-dimensional identification method in Northwestern China. Then, the spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence characteristics of agricultural droughts were evaluated. The results showed that: (1) Study area experienced alternating phases of dry and wet, with intensification in the 1960s and 1990s, and significant humidification post-2000. All four seasons show a wetting trend, while spring exhibited notable humidification trends. (2) Drought intensity and frequency displayed regional variability, agricultural drought in the west part of the study area were high in frequency but low in intensity, while the opposite was true in the east. (3) Agricultural drought exhibited cyclical behavior with dominant periods of 3.5, 6.6, and 13.5 years, reflecting interannual and interdecadal fluctuations. (4) Multivariate joint recurrence periods highlighted significant correlations among drought characteristics, emphasizing the risk of underestimation when considering single variables. These results offer valuable insights for water resources allocation and drought mitigation.

Indexed as

3D clustering methodAgricultural droughtCopula functionRecurrence periodStandardized soil moisture index (SSMI)

Identifiers

PMID40603353
PMCPMC12222953

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