ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2025
Estimated impact of long-acting injectable PrEP in South Africa: a model comparison analysis.
Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimising scale-up of injectable lenacapavir for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in South Africa: A modelling study and economic evaluation.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Expanding access to a choice-based multi-method PrEP market for HIV prevention.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionLong-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in two clinical trials. This analysis projects the impact of expanding PrEP coverage with CAB-LA in South Africa between 2022 and 2042.
methodsThree independently calibrated models of HIV transmission in South Africa (Synthesis, EMOD-HIV, Thembisa) projected HIV acquisitions and effective coverage (average PrEP coverage across exposure groups, weighted by HIV incidence in the absence of PrEP in each group) over 20 years under multiple scenarios of PrEP expansion compared to no PrEP expansion. PrEP expansion scenarios differed in targeted overall coverage, speed of expansion, coverage of high-exposure groups, and relative coverage of women and men.
resultsAchieving 5% PrEP coverage with CAB-LA by 2032 prioritizing high-exposure groups resulted in 49% (Synthesis), 18% (EMOD-HIV), and 8% (Thembisa) effective coverage and averted a median of 43%, 29% and 10% of new HIV acquisitions, respectively. Similar expansion with TDF/FTC resulted in lower impact by 19 percentage points (pp), 18pp and 3pp, respectively. Increasing CAB-LA coverage to 15% led to an additional 7pp, 12pp and 16pp, respectively, of HIV acquisitions averted. Achieving 5% CAB-LA coverage expanding to women only resulted in a lower impact by 16pp (Synthesis) and 13pp (EMOD-HIV), and a higher impact by 2pp (Thembisa). Scenarios with similar effective coverage resulted in comparable impact estimates across models.
conclusionsOffering CAB-LA in South Africa may substantially impact the HIV epidemic based on these projections. Effective coverage proved to be a good predictor of intervention effectiveness.
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Registered trials
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