Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40598153›Full record

ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2025

Computational modeling of infectious diseases: insights from network-based simulations on measles.

Francesco Branda, Pierangelo Veltri, Francesco Chiodo, Massimo Ciccozzi, Fabio Scarpa, Pietro Hiram Guzzi

Abstract read
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Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Francesco BrandaUnit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, via Álvaro del Portillo, 21, Rome, RM, 00128, Italy. f.branda@unicampus.it.
Pierangelo VeltriDIMES, University of Calabria, Via P. Bucci, Rende, CS, 87036, Italy.
Francesco ChiodoDepartment of Surgical and Medical Sciences, Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro, Viale Europa, Catanzaro, CZ, 88100, Italy.
Massimo CiccozziUnit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, via Álvaro del Portillo, 21, Rome, RM, 00128, Italy.
Fabio ScarpaDepartment of Biomedical Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale San Pietro, 43, Sassari, SS, 07100, Italy.
Pietro Hiram GuzziDepartment of Surgical and Medical Sciences, Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro, Viale Europa, Catanzaro, CZ, 88100, Italy. hguzzi@unicz.it.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundComputational modelling of disease spread is crucial for understanding the dynamics of infectious outbreaks and assessing the effectiveness of control measures. In particular, network-based models for disease spreading offer detailed, granular insights into heterogeneous interactions and enable dynamic simulation of intervention strategies. Therefore, they offer valuable insights into the factors influencing disease spread, enabling public health authorities to develop effective containment strategies. Vaccination is among the most impactful interventions in controlling disease spread and has proven essential in preventing the spread of infectious diseases such as measles. However, recent trends indicate a concerning decline in the fraction of vaccinated individuals in various populations, increasing the risk of outbreaks.

methodsIn this study, we utilize computational simulations on graph-based models to analyze how vaccination affects the spread of infectious diseases. By representing populations as networks in which individuals (nodes) are connected by potential spread pathways (edges), we simulate different vaccination coverage scenarios and assess their impact on disease spread. Our simulations incorporate high and low vaccination coverage to reflect real-world trends and explore various conditions under which disease spread can be effectively blocked.

resultsThe results demonstrate that adequate vaccination coverage is critical for halting outbreaks, with a marked reduction in disease spread observed as the fraction of vaccinated individuals increases. Conversely, insufficient vaccination rates lead to widespread outbreaks, underscoring the importance of maintaining high vaccination levels to achieve herd immunity and prevent resurgence. These findings highlight the vital role of vaccination as a preventative tool and emphasize the potential risks posed by declining vaccination rates.

conclusionThis study provides a deeper understanding of how vaccination strategies can mitigate the spread of infectious diseases and serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining robust immunization programs to protect public health.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationDisease OutbreaksEpidemiological ModelsMeaslesHumansVaccinationDisease spread dynamicsGraph-based simulationsInfectious disease modelingMeasles outbreaksNetwork epidemiologyVaccination strategies

Identifiers

PMID40598153
PMCPMC12219886

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.