Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40595312›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Future global distribution and climatic suitability of Anopheles stephensi.

Andre Luis Acosta, Marcia C Castro, Gabriel Z Laporta, Jan E Conn, Maria Anice M Sallum

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Humidity shapes the thermal niche ofbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  6. Historical Overview of the Bionomics ofJournal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2026
    Review
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Anopheles stephensi: a new and important menace to South America?Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Andre Luis AcostaEpidemiology Department, Public Health School, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, 01246-904, SP, Brazil. andreluisacosta@gmail.com.
Marcia C CastroDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Gabriel Z LaportaGraduate Program in Health Sciences, FMABC Medical School University Center, Santo Andre, SP, 09060-870, Brazil.
Jan E ConnWadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, 12237, USA.
Maria Anice M SallumEpidemiology Department, Public Health School, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, 01246-904, SP, Brazil.

Funding

Latitudinal Landscape Genomics and Ecology of Anopheles DarlingiR01AI110112 · NIAID · WADSWORTH CENTER · PI CONN, JAN E · 2014 to 2024
$3.7M
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 303382/2022-8NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI110112NIH HHS R01 AI110112
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Anopheles stephensi, an urban malaria vector, is expanding into new regions and poses a growing global health threat. Using a robust multi-model framework with eight algorithms and high-resolution climate data, this study assessed and mapped current and future global climate suitability for the species, incorporating demographic data to estimate populations at risk in different scenarios. Currently, An. stephensi can thrive in 13% of the Earth's surface, affecting nearly 40% of the global population. Projections indicate that suitable areas could exceed 30% by 2100, exposing up to 56% of the world's population, including in previously malaria-free regions such as North America, Europe, and Oceania. Spread may occur via maritime traffic, wind dispersal, and natural range expansion. These findings highlight the urgent need for global monitoring and control strategies, emphasizing the importance of integrating climate change projections into urban malaria prevention efforts to protect vulnerable populations and support global malaria elimination goals.

Indexed as

AnophelesMalariaMosquito VectorsAnimalsClimateClimate ChangeHumansAnopheles stephensiClimate changeHabitat suitability modelsInvasive speciesUrban malariaVector-borne diseases

Identifiers

PMID40595312
PMCPMC12215484

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.