Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40588634›Full record

ArticleBreast cancer research and treatment2025

The DCIS-IBC guide board on predicting postoperative upgrading in breast ductal carcinoma in situ: clinical insights from a multicenter study.

Chenglong Duan, Jinsui Du, Lizhe Zhu, Man Niu, Dong Fan, Siyuan Jiang, Jiaqi Zhang, Yudong Zhou, Yi Pan, Danni Li and 3 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Breast cancer research and treatment, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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1citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Chenglong Duan *Department of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Jinsui Du *Department of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Lizhe ZhuDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Man NiuDepartment of Pathology, Xi'an People's Hospital (Xi'an Fourth Hospital), Xi'an, China.
Dong FanDepartment of General Surgery, Tangdu Hospital, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China.
Siyuan JiangDepartment of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Northwest University (Xi'an Third Hospital), Xi'an, China.
Jiaqi ZhangDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Yudong ZhouDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Yi PanDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Danni LiDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Jianing ZhangDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.
Yu RenDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China. renyyyyy@126.com.
Bin WangDepartment of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China. february111@163.com.

Funding

Key Research and Development Projects of Shaanxi Province 2024SF-ZDCYL-02-08National Natural Science Foundation of China 82172798
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDuctal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) carries a significant risk of postoperative upgrading to invasive breast cancer (IBC), yet existing prediction models lack validation in Asian populations. This study aimed to develop and validate a population-specific nomogram to preoperatively predict DCIS-to-IBC upgrading in Asian patients.

methodsA multicenter retrospective cohort of 465 Asian women diagnosed with DCIS by core needle biopsy (2015-2021) was analyzed. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 257), internal validation (n = 110), and external validation cohorts (n = 98). Predictors were selected via LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression. Model performance was assessed using AUC, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). An interactive online nomogram was developed for clinical application.

resultsPostoperative upgrading occurred in 49.46% (230/465) of patients. Four independent predictors were identified: palpable mass (OR = 2.55, p = 0.096), lesion palpability (OR = 2.58, p = 0.043), low nuclear grade (OR = 0.55, p = 0.098), and suspected invasion (OR = 6.59, p < 0.001). The nomogram demonstrated robust discrimination in the training cohort (AUC = 0.802, 95% CI 0.748-0.856), with maintained performance in internal validation (AUC = 0.753) and acceptable generalizability in external validation (AUC = 0.680). DCA confirmed clinical utility across risk thresholds. The dynamic nomogram ( https://duancl777.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/ ) enabled real-time risk stratification.

conclusionsThe DCIS-IBC Guide Board is the first Asian-specific model integrating clinicopathological predictors to identify high-risk DCIS patients. It facilitates personalized decisions, such as omitting sentinel lymph node biopsy while reducing overtreatment. Although external validation showed moderate performance, this tool addresses critical population heterogeneity and enhances preoperative risk assessment. Prospective multicenter studies are warranted to optimize generalizability and explore multimodal predictors.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsCarcinoma, Intraductal, NoninfiltratingNomogramsAdultAgedBiopsy, Large-Core NeedleFemaleHumansMiddle AgedNeoplasm GradingPrognosisRetrospective StudiesDuctal carcinoma in situMulticenter studyNomogramPostoperative pathological upgrade

Identifiers

PMID40588634
PMCPMC12259714

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.