Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40587799›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025

Prehistoric archives reveal evidence of predator loss and prey release in Caribbean reef fish communities.

Aaron O'Dea, Erin M Dillon, Simon J Brandl, Katie L Cramer, Jonathan D Cybulski, Brígida de Gracia, Kimberly García-Méndez, Katherine Griswold, Chien-Hsiang Lin, Matthieu Leray and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Prehistoric archives reveal evidence of predator loss and prey release in Caribbean reef fish communities.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Aaron O'Dea *Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0001-5495-4764
Erin M Dillon *Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0003-0249-027X
Simon J BrandlDepartment of Marine Science, The University of Texas at Austin, Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX 78373.ORCID 0000-0002-6649-2496
Katie L CramerSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0001-8760-180X
Jonathan D CybulskiSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0002-8415-6162
Brígida de GraciaSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0009-0005-2456-127X
Kimberly García-MéndezSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.
Katherine GriswoldSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.
Chien-Hsiang LinBiodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei 11529, Taiwan.ORCID 0000-0002-9843-9729
Matthieu LeraySmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0002-7327-1878
Jessica A Lueders-DumontSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.
Andrew J SellersSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.
Thomas A WakeSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0001-8001-5058

Funding

Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF) NANSF (NSF) 1325683NSF (NSF) 2347773Save Our Seas Foundation (SOSF) NASecretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT) NASENACYT | Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SNI, SENACYT) NA
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding how humans have altered coral reef food webs remains challenging due to the absence of prehistoric baselines. Here, we use fish remains preserved in fossil and archaeological deposits from Panamá and the Dominican Republic to explore how Caribbean reef fish mortality patterns have changed over millennia. By quantifying accumulation rates of shark dermal denticles (scales) and bony fish otoliths (ear stones) in reef sediments, we assess relative fish abundance, while otolith size serves as a proxy for body size at death. Comparisons of these death assemblages suggest a 75% decline in shark-derived material and a 22% reduction in the sizes of human-targeted fishes-consistent with historical exploitation. This evidence of decline in large-bodied, higher trophic level fish remains coincided with a doubling in prey fish otolith accumulation and a 17% increase in their reconstructed body sizes. These patterns in time-averaged death assemblages align with effects of release from predation, documenting an often assumed (but rarely shown) cascading effect. In contrast, otoliths of predator-sheltered cryptobenthic fishes showed no change in either accumulation or size, suggesting that ''bottom-up"environmental factors were not responsible for the observed changes. Together, these data indicate that pre-exploitation predator communities strongly controlled exposed prey fishes, but this "top-down" effect diminishes rapidly toward the food chain base, especially in predator-resistant groups. Understanding trophic cascades on Caribbean reefs requires studying systems before predator depletion.

Indexed as

Coral ReefsFishesFood ChainPredatory BehaviorAnimalsBody SizeCaribbean RegionDominican RepublicFossilsHumansOtolithic MembranePanamaSharkspaleoecologicalprehistorical baselinesreef fish communitiestrophic cascades

Identifiers

PMID40587799
PMCPMC12260591

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.