Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40580993›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2025

The burden of multimorbidity-associated acute hospital admissions in Malawi and Tanzania: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

Stephen A Spencer, Nateiya M Yongolo, Ibrahim G Simiyu, Hendry R Sawe, Paul Dark, Stephen B Gordon, Matthew P Rubach, Rachel Manongi, Julian T Hertz, Gimbo Hyuha and 18 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

28 authors.

Stephen A SpencerMalawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi; Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK; Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi. Electronic address: stephen.spencer@lstmed.ac.uk.
Nateiya M YongoloLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK; Kilimanjaro Clinical Research Institute, Moshi, Tanzania; KCMC University, Moshi, Tanzania.
Ibrahim G SimiyuLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK; Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Hendry R SaweMuhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Paul DarkHumanitarian and Conflict Response Institute, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Stephen B GordonMalawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi; Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK; Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi.
Matthew P RubachKilimanjaro Clinical Research Institute, Moshi, Tanzania; Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.
Rachel ManongiKCMC University, Moshi, Tanzania.
Julian T HertzDuke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.
Gimbo HyuhaMuhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Grasiana KimarioMuhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Juma MfinangaMuhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Blandina T MmbagaKilimanjaro Clinical Research Institute, Moshi, Tanzania; KCMC University, Moshi, Tanzania; Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.
Adamson S MuulaThe Kamuzu University of Health Sciences, Blantyre, Malawi.
Mulinda NyirendaQueen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi; The Kamuzu University of Health Sciences, Blantyre, Malawi.
Jacob PhulusaMalawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi.
Laura RosuLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Alice H RuttaKilimanjaro Clinical Research Institute, Moshi, Tanzania.
Francis SakitaKCMC University, Moshi, Tanzania; Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Moshi, Tanzania.
Charity SalimaAchikondi Women Community Clinic, Lilongwe, Malawi.
Miriam TaegtmeyerLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Sarah UrasaKCMC University, Moshi, Tanzania; Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Moshi, Tanzania.
Sarah A WhiteLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Jamie RylanceMalawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi; Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Felix LimbaniMalawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi.
Eve WorrallLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Ben MortonLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Multilink Consortium

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe global burden of multimorbidity-the coexistence of two or more long-term conditions-is increasing. Limited access to primary care in sub-Saharan Africa means acute hospital admission is often the sentinel multimorbidity presentation. This prospective multicentre cohort study aimed to describe the burden, constituent diseases, and outcomes of multimorbidity among patients acutely admitted to hospital in Malawi and Tanzania.

methodsAdults (ie, those aged ≥18 years) admitted to four hospitals (two tertiary and two district hospitals) with acute medical conditions were consecutively recruited within 24 h of presentation and followed up for 90 days. We estimated the prevalence of HIV infection, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease using commercially available point-of-care tests, and captured self-reported and clinical diagnoses (n/N [%]). Health economic data were summarised by median and IQR and modelled using generalised linear models. All-cause 90-day mortality was summarised with Kalplan-Meier plots and analysed using Cox regression models.

findings1407 adults (657 [46·7%] were female and 750 [53·3%] were male; mean age was 52·3 years [SD 18·4]) were recruited. We examined multimorbidity prevalence in 1007 participants admitted to three hospitals that accept admissions directly from the community. Multimorbidity was found in 473 (47·0%) of 1007 participants and 292 (29·0%) had a single long-term condition. Outcomes at 90 days were determined for 1317 (93·6%) of 1407 participants. Adjusted 90-day mortality was higher in participants with multimorbidity (335 [41·7%] of 804; hazard ratio 1·5 [95% CI 1·1-2·1]) and those with one long-term condition (80 [28·3%] of 283; 1·5 [1·0-2·1]); compared with those with no long-term conditions (31 [13·5%] of 230). Health-related quality of life was lower in participants with multimorbidity compared with those with one long-term condition (median 0·402 [IQR -0·037 to 0·644] vs 0·557 [0·140 to 0·730]; p=0·005) at baseline, and at final observation (0·858 [0·667 to 1·00] vs 1·00 [0·589 to 1·00] respectively; p=0·01). In Tanzania, medical costs incurred by patients were higher in participants with multimorbidity compared with those with one long-term condition (relative effect 5·77 [95% CI 2·99-11·15]; p<0·0001).

interpretationMultimorbidity is common in patients admitted to hospital in Malawi and Tanzania and associated with worse survival and increased cost. Multimorbidity is an urgent public health threat that requires fundamental health-care delivery reform to address population needs.

fundingNational Institute for Health and Care Research and Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATIONS: For the Chichewa and Kiswahili translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessHospitalizationMultimorbidityAdultAgedFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansMalawiMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceProspective StudiesTanzania

Identifiers

PMID40580993
PMCPMC12208785

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.