ArticleIJID regions2025
Estimating childhood tuberculosis incidence and under-reporting in Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia: a Bayesian hidden Markov model.
Article in IJID regions, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Advanced statistical approaches in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes in Africa: a systematic review.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Objectives: To estimate the incidence and under-reported cases of childhood tuberculosis (TB) in rural Ethiopia. Methods: We used a Bayesian hidden Markov model with Spatio-temporal random effects to analyze TB notification data from rural areas between 2018 and 2023. Spatial dependence and HIV infection were included as covariates for estimating TB incidence, while the availability of diagnostic services informed the case detection process. Sensitivity analysis were conducted to assess the robustness of the results with alternative prior distributions. Results: Childhood TB incidence in the Gedeo Zone increased from 141 cases per 100,000 population (95% uncertainty interval: 96-193) in 2018 to 157 cases (95% uncertainty interval: 114-207) in 2023. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 56 cases per 100,000 in 2018 to 62 in 2023, indicating substantial under-reporting. Spatial lags of TB notifications predicted incidence in adjacent areas. Sensitivity analysis confirmed result robustness. Conclusions: The gap between estimated TB incidence and reported cases highlights the urgent need to strengthen TB surveillance in the study area.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.