Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40573958›Full record

ReviewVaccines2025

Predicting the Epidemiological Effects in the United Kingdom of Moving from PCV13 to PCV15 in the Routine Pediatric 1 + 1 Vaccination Schedule.

Rachel J Oidtman, Natalie Banniettis, Jessica Weaver, Ian R Matthews, Dionysios Ntais, Giulio Meleleo, Tufail M Malik, John C Lang, Oluwaseun Sharomi

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Vaccines, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Rachel J OidtmanMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ 07065, USA.
Natalie BanniettisMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ 07065, USA.
Jessica WeaverMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ 07065, USA.
Ian R MatthewsMSD (UK) Ltd., Value, Access, and Devolved Nations (VAD), London EC2M 6UR, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6175-6512
Dionysios NtaisMSD (UK) Ltd., Value, Access, and Devolved Nations (VAD), London EC2M 6UR, UK.
Giulio MeleleoWolfram Research, Inc., Champaign, IL 61820, USA.
Tufail M MalikMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ 07065, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0196-0057
John C LangMerck Canada, Inc., Kirkland, QC H9H 4M7, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-1770-2995
Oluwaseun SharomiMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ 07065, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1368-5670

Funding

Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA (United States) The funder provided support in the form of salaries or consulting fees for authors.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND/

objectivesPneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first introduced in the pediatric UK National Immunization Programme (NIP) in 2006 and subsequently led to a significant decline in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). In 2020, the UK NIP reduced the pediatric PCV dosing schedule from two infant doses and one toddler dose (2 + 1) to one infant dose and one toddler dose (1 + 1). This analysis evaluated the public health impact of pediatric vaccination with PCV15 versus PCV13 under a 1 + 1 schedule.

methodsA population-level compartmental model was previously adapted to the UK setting. The impact on the IPD incidence of vaccination with PCV15 versus PCV13 under a 1 + 1 schedule was evaluated over a 20-year time horizon. The uncertainty regarding the vaccine efficacy (VE) of PCV13 and PCV15 under a 1 + 1 schedule was investigated through a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, i.e., the PCV VE under a 1 + 1 schedule was assumed to be 0-24% lower than the PCV VE under a 2 + 1 schedule.

resultsRelative to the initial IPD incidence, vaccination with PCV13 and PCV15 under a 1 + 1 schedule resulted in the IPD incidence in children <2 years old increasing by 11.1% (95% region: 8.4-14.5%) and 3.5% (0.2-7.7%), respectively, over the time horizon. At the end of the time horizon, in the overall population, PCV15 would lead to a 6.0% lower IPD incidence than PCV13 (10.70 IPD cases per 100,000 versus 11.38 per 100,000, respectively).

conclusionsSwitching from PCV13 to PCV15 for routine pediatric vaccinations under the 1 + 1 dosing schedule in the UK led to a lower IPD incidence in both the pediatric and overall populations.

Indexed as

dynamic transmission modelinvasive pneumococcal diseasepediatric immunizationpneumococcal conjugate vaccineUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID40573958
PMCPMC12197695

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.