Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40569888›Full record

ArticlePLOS global public health2025

Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.

Lucas Hertzog, Marshall Makate, David Chipanta, Boladé Banougnin, Martina Mchenga, Gavin Pereira, Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu, Jennifer Dunne, Paula S Tallman, Shalean Collins and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLOS global public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Lucas HertzogCurtin School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9881-3648
Marshall MakateCurtin School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2005-2970
David ChipantaUnited Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Windhoek, Namibia.
Boladé BanougninUnited Nations Population Fund, West and Central Africa Region Office, Dakar, Senegal.
Martina MchengaCentre for Social Science Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Gavin PereiraCurtin School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3740-8117
Sylvester Dodzi NyadanuCurtin School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.
Jennifer DunneCurtin School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1001-732X
Paula S TallmanDepartment of Anthropology, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2384-249X
Shalean CollinsDepartment of International Health & Sustainable Development, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America.
Kefyalew Addis AleneCurtin School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.
Pauline Rousseau-GueutinUniv Rennes, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, Rennes, France.
Astghik MavisakalyanBankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-8820
Ivan C HaniganCurtin School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Droughts have profound and far-reaching impacts on human health and well-being, but their influence on sexual violence among adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is underexamined.This study examines the association between drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women globally, using cross-sectional, nationally representative data from the Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys (VACS) from 2013 and 2019. The sample includes 35,309 females aged 13-24 from 14 countries in Central and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Sexual violence was defined based on unwanted sexual contact, completed or attempted forced penetration, and pressured sexual activity within the past 12 months. Drought exposure captured intensity and duration of drought conditions measured using the Global Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over a 48-month period before surveys. Bayesian Generalized Linear Models were employed to estimate the association between drought exposure and reported experiences of sexual violence, controlling for age, relationship status, school attendance, and wealth. The analysis revealed that exposure to prolonged and extreme drought, lasting 8-43 months in a 48-month period, was associated with higher odds of sexual violence (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.22). Very dry periods are also associated with increased odds of experiencing sexual violence (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.05). In contrast with extreme conditions, exposure to slight to moderate drought and recent and long periods suggested potential protective effects.This study provides novel evidence of an association between extreme drought and an increased likelihood of sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women in LMICs. The findings emphasise how climate change can exacerbate social vulnerabilities through its indirect effects, highlighting the need for comprehensive assessments of its impact on vulnerable populations.

Identifiers

PMID40569888
PMCPMC12200773

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.