ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2025
Myopia and high myopia trends in Chinese children and adolescents over 25 years: a nationwide study with projections to 2050.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07264361 (Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of the D.D.C Dual-control Technology Spectacle Lenses in Delaying the Progression of Myopia), which is not on this map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of the D.D.C Dual-control Technology Spectacle Lenses in Delaying the Progression of Myopia: a Randomized Controlled Trial
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of exercise on myopia in children and adolescents and its modifying factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC pediatrics · 2026Pooled it
- Differences in Posterior Ocular Morphology Following Red Light Therapy Versus 0.01% Atropine for Myopia Control: A Randomized Controlled Trial Analysis.Investigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2026Trial
- Long-term clinical outcomes of dome-shaped macula: a contralateral eye comparison.Eye (London, England) · 2026Observational
- The Comparative Effectiveness of Four Myopia-Control Spectacle Lenses: A Real-World AIPW Cohort Study.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Cross-tissue dual-omics analysis reveals molecular programs linked to myopia susceptibility and progression.Life science alliance · 2026Article
- Trend of Myopia Incidence Among Adolescents (2018-2025) in Senior High School: An 8-Year Retrospective Study in Multi-Regions of China, With Projections to 2030.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2026Article
- Vortex Vein Morphology and Choroidal Thickness as Predictors of Refractive Status: Model Construction and Mediation Analysis.Translational vision science & technology · 2026Article
- Two-Year Fundus Progression in Highly Myopic Eyes in the Aier-SERI High Myopia Adult Cohort Study.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2026Article
- Analysis of the Association Between Weight Status and Myopia in Children and Adolescents and Development of a Screening Model Based on Body Fat Percentage.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2026Article
- Effect of full spectrum indoor lighting on myopia progression in school-aged children: a prospective cohort study.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2026Article
- Article
- HOTV Vision Test Compared With Tumbling E for Pediatric Vision Screening.JAMA ophthalmology · 2026Article
- Age- and Myopia-Related 3-Dimensional Remodeling of Choroidal Thickness in Children.Ophthalmology science · 2026Article
- Analysis of the Correlations between Relative Peripheral Refraction Errors and Myopia in Children and Adolescents.Ophthalmology and therapy · 2026Article
- Myopia Prevalence Among 6-17 Years Students in Rural Areas of Seven Provinces of China.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Factors Influencing the Transition From Physiological Hyperopia to Myopia in Children: Protocol for a Prospective Nested Case-Control Study.JMIR research protocols · 2026Article
- Prevalence and incidence of myopia and high myopia among children and adolescents in Qingdao, China (2022-2024): a longitudinal study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- A refractive error prediction model for children and adolescents based on ocular biometric parameters.BMC ophthalmology · 2026Observational
- Benchmarking publicly accessible large language models for high-myopia multiple-choice question generation in digital ophthalmic education and public health training.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Choroidal structural and perfusion characteristics across refractive groups in children.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
40 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The global rise in myopia, particularly in Asia, presents significant public health challenges. Analyzing trends and forecasting impacts are critical for developing strategies to mitigate this burden. Methods: We conducted the largest study to date on myopia and high myopia prevalence in Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years, analyzing data from 5,095,256 individuals across 119 studies from 1998 to 2022. Data variability between cycloplegia and non-cycloplegia measurements was addressed using a distance-based model averaging calibration. Aggregated prevalence and age-specific urban-rural trends were estimated using thin plate spline regression, with projections to 2050 derived from time series modeling. Findings: Myopia prevalence plateaued in 2006 in urban areas and in 2013 in rural areas, with the urban-rural prevalence gap narrowing since 2015 (urban/rural ratio below 1.3 for all ages). By 2050, myopia prevalence is projected to stabilize at 27.1% (95% CI: 10.0-44.4%) for ages 7-9 and 81.5% (74.7-88.3%) for ages 16-18 in urban areas, and at 20.1% (8.6-31.7%) and 74.1% (63.2-84.8%), respectively, in rural areas. High myopia prevalence among adolescents aged 16-18 is expected to rise from 7.3% in 2001 to 22.1% by 2050. Prevalence correlated significantly with the Human Development Index (P < 0.001). Interpretation: Despite stabilization in overall myopia prevalence, the continued rise in high myopia underscores the need for targeted control measures. Projections emphasize the importance of addressing regional disparities and prioritizing public health interventions. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China (#82271086; #82388101; #72495123).
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