ArticlebioRxiv : the preprint server for biology2025
Forecasting drug resistant HIV protease evolution.
Article in bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Protease inhibitors (PIs) target the protease (PR) enzyme to suppress viral replication. Their efficacy in human immunodeficiency virus treatment is compromised by the emergence of drug-resistant strains. Therefore, forecasting drug-resistance during viral evolution would help in the design of effective treatment strategies. We develop a probabilistic large-deviation model to infer epistatic interactions in genotypes observed in different treatment regimens and compute transition probabilities of point-mutations conditioned on the genotype and the treatment regimen. We simulate stochastic evolutionary paths weighted by such transition probabilities and show that low probable mutations are required for the viral population to evolve to diverse fit genotypes. We train classification models using a clinical data set of
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