Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40566275›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2025

A Multistate Continuous Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Model for Assessing the CD4 Count Dynamics of HIV/AIDS Patients Undergoing Antiretroviral Therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Chiedza Elvina Mashiri, Jesca Mercy Batidzirai, Retius Chifurira, Knowledge Chinhamu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Chiedza Elvina MashiriDepartment of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Midlands State University, Gweru P Bag 9055, Zimbabwe.ORCID 0009-0003-2454-3245
Jesca Mercy BatidziraiSchool of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg 3201, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0003-3116-1301
Retius ChifuriraSchool of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa.
Knowledge ChinhamuSchool of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0003-4296-7677

Funding

Research Training on Harnessing Data Science for Global Health Priorities in AfricaU2RTW012140 · FIC · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI BARNIGHAUSEN, TILL, FAWZI, WAFAIE W · 2021 to 2025
$1.7M
FIC NIH HHS U2R TW012140
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Monitoring CD4 count levels is essential for tracking the progression of HIV in patients. This study aimed to identify the key factors influencing HIV progression by incorporating time-varying factors and transition probabilities. The data for this study were obtained from the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), which enrolled 3325 patients aged 14 to 76 who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) and were followed up with between June 2004 and August 2013. The dataset included clinical, demographic, and treatment information to capture a comprehensive picture of HIV progression. To analyze the factors associated with HIV progression, this study employed time-inhomogeneous Markov models, which allow for incorporating covariates that change over time and transition probabilities. These models provided a robust framework to assess how various factors, such as CD4 count, viral load, and treatment adherence, evolve and influence disease progression. The results indicated that males had a significantly higher risk of moving from a normal (more than 500 cells/mm

Indexed as

Anti-HIV AgentsHIV InfectionsAdolescentAdultAgedCD4 Lymphocyte CountDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansMaleMarkov ChainsMiddle AgedSouth AfricaViral LoadYoung AdultAnti-HIV AgentsCD4 countmultistate modelsprogressiontransitions

Identifiers

PMID40566275
PMCPMC12192621

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.