Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40563017›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2025

Efficacy, public health impact and optimal use of the Takeda dengue vaccine.

Bethan Cracknell Daniels, Neil M Ferguson, Ilaria Dorigatti

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Bethan Cracknell DanielsMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1154-8093
Ilaria DorigattiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. i.dorigatti@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9959-0706

Funding

DH | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) NIHR200908RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC) MR/X020258/1Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust (Wellcome) 213494/Z/18/ZWellcome Trust (Wellcome) 226727/Z/22/ZWellcome Trust (Wellcome) 228185/Z/23/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Dengue is the most common arboviral infection, causing substantial morbidity and mortality globally. The licensing of Qdenga, a second-generation vaccine developed by Takeda Pharmaceuticals, is therefore timely, but the potential public health impact of vaccination across transmission settings needs to be evaluated. To address this, we characterized Qdenga's efficacy profile using mathematical models calibrated to published clinical trial data and estimated the public health impact of routine vaccine use. We find that efficacy against both virologically confirmed dengue and hospitalization depends on the infecting serotype, serological status and age. We estimate that vaccination of children aged over 6 years in moderate-to-high dengue transmission settings (average seroprevalence in 9-year-olds > 60%) could reduce the burden of hospitalized dengue by 10-22% on average over 10 years. We find some evidence of a risk of vaccine-induced disease enhancement in seronegative vaccine recipients for dengue serotypes 3 and 4, especially for children under 6 years of age. Because of this, the benefits of vaccination in lower transmission settings are more uncertain, and more data on the long-term efficacy of Qdenga against serotypes 3 and 4 are needed.

Indexed as

DengueDengue VaccinesPublic HealthAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolDengue VirusFemaleHumansSerogroupVaccinationVaccine EfficacyDengue Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID40563017
PMCPMC12353809

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.