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ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2025

Quantifying the primary care workforce in the U.S.: A validation study with and without an imperfectly measured referent standard.

Nicole Rafalko, Scott Siegel, Paul Yerkes, Jan M Eberth, Igor Burstyn, Neal D Goldstein

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Nicole RafalkoDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, PA, United States.
Scott SiegelCawley Center for Translational Cancer Research, Helen F. Graham Cancer Center & Research Institute, Christiana Care Health System, Newark, DE, United States.
Paul YerkesCore Family Practice, Kennett Square, PA, United States.
Jan M EberthDepartment of Health Management and Policy, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, PA, United States.
Igor BurstynDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Health, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, PA, United States.
Neal D GoldsteinDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health, Philadelphia, PA, United States; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Drexel University College of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, United States. Electronic address: ng338@drexel.edu.

Funding

Predictive Modeling & Optimal Control Framework for Model-Based Epidemic Response in DelawareP20GM103446 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE · PI Shawn W Polson · 2012 to 2026
$67.2M
NIGMS NIH HHS P20 GM103446
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo validate the National Provider Identifier (NPI), a commonly used data source in health services research, for identifying primary care physicians, physician assistants (PAs), and nurse practitioners (NPs).

methodsValidation studies to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and associated 95 % confidence intervals for physicians, PAs, and NPs. For physicians, Medicare claims data were used as an imperfectly measured referent standard. For PAs and NPs, we used a simulation-based method to estimate accuracy parameters that assumed the NPI and Medicare claims were equally misclassified.

resultsUsing the Medicare claims as the referent standard for physicians yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 0.95 (95 % CI: 0.88, 0.98) and 0.76 (95 % CI: 0.73, 0.79), respectively. Using the simulation-based method yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 0.57 (95 % CrI: 0.11, 0.97) and 0.56 (95 % CrI: 0.10, 0.96), respectively for PAs and 0.58 (95 % CrI: 0.13, 0.97) and 0.61 (95 % CrI: 0.14, 0.97), respectively for NPs.

conclusionsOur validation results varied by provider role. Accuracy was highest for physicians further highlighting the challenges in quantifying PAs and NPs based on their NPI alone. Failure to consider potential misclassification in the NPI may result in biased research findings.

Indexed as

Nurse PractitionersPhysician AssistantsPhysicians, Primary CarePrimary Health CareHealth Services ResearchHumansMedicareReproducibility of ResultsSensitivity and SpecificityUnited Statesaccuracyhealth services researchNational provider identifierprimary care providersprimary care servicesvalidation study

Identifiers

PMID40562324
PMCPMC13155468

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.