Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40562045›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2026

Assessing the Transmissibility and Outbreak Risk of Measles in the United States, 2024-2030.

Subekshya Bidari, Haokun Yuan, Wan Yang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Subekshya BidariDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9508-327X
Haokun YuanDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0262-3100
Wan YangDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7555-9728

Funding

Disease Persistence and Population Dynamics: Modeling Measles under Mass VaccinationR01AI145883 · NIAID · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI YANG, WAN · 2019 to 2024
$2.5M
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases AI145883NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI145883
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The incidence of measles has resurged globally after the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. To inform planning in the United States, we assessed local transmissibility and outbreak risk at present (2024-2025) and in future years (2025-2030) under various vaccination scenarios. The estimated spatiotemporal outbreak risk pattern is consistent with current observations. Projections through 2030 show that the reproduction number could exceed 1-indicating a potential of large outbreaks-within 5 (or 2) years should vaccination coverage decline by 10% (or 50%). These findings can inform outbreak preparedness and highlight the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to sustaining measles elimination in the United States.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksMeaslesCOVID-19HumansIncidenceMeasles VaccineUnited StatesVaccinationVaccination CoverageMeasles Vaccineair travelmeaslesmobilityoutbreak riskreproduction number

Identifiers

PMID40562045
PMCPMC12811863

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.