Simulating Lightning-Induced Tree Mortality in the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS.

Lightning is an important yet often overlooked disturbance agent in forest ecosystems. Recent research conducted in Panama suggests that lightning is a major cause of large tree mortality in tropical forests. However, lightning-induced tree mortality is not included in state-of-the-art ecosystem models. Here, we implement a general lightning mortality module in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to explore the impacts of lightning on forests at local and global scales. Lightning mortality was implemented stochastically in dependency of local cloud-to-ground lightning density and simulated forest structure based on findings from the Panamanian forest. For this site, LPJ-GUESS adequately simulates the average number of trees of different size classes killed per lightning strike, with a total of 2.9 simulated versus 3.2 observed. The model also captures the estimated contribution of lightning to the overall mortality of large trees (21% simulated vs. 24% observed). Applying the new model version to other tropical and temperate forests for which observation-based estimates on lightning mortality exist, LPJ-GUESS reproduces estimated impacts in some forests but simulates substantially lower impacts for others. Global simulations driven by two alternative products of cloud-to-ground lightning densities suggest that lightning kills 301-340 million trees annually, thereby causing 0.21-0.30 GtC yr.