ArticleFrontiers in endocrinology2025
Comprehensive mathematical modeling of age-dependent oocyte quality and quantity for predicting live birth rate.
Article in Frontiers in endocrinology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Age-related decline in fertility is widely recognized. However, a quantitative evaluation of changes in oocyte quality and quantity remains insufficient. Therefore, developing a mathematical model to quantitatively predict live birth rates affected by these changes is essential for supporting decision-making in assisted reproductive technology. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we developed a mathematical model to predict live birth rates based on oocyte quality and quantity using IVF treatment data from our clinic over an 8-year period. In the first stage, medically meaningful model functions were selected, and curve fitting was performed using weighted nonlinear least-squares regression to quantify age-related changes in oocyte quality and quantity. For oocyte quality, a comparative analysis was conducted on our clinical data and other large-scale datasets, modeling the live birth rate per single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer (SVBT) in correlation with the euploidy rate. For oocyte quantity, the distributions of anti-Müllerian hormone levels, antral follicle count, mature oocyte count, and transferable embryo count were analyzed by two-dimensional weighted nonlinear least-squares regression. In the second stage, logistic regression was applied to analyze live birth rates per SVBT and oocyte pick-up, incorporating multiple explanatory variables. Results: The adjusted R-squared values for the curve fitting results were above 0.9, indicating high fitting accuracy. In oocyte quality evaluation, all datasets showed that the values declined to half their peak by the age of 40 years. With respect to oocyte quantity, complete distribution characteristics were successfully modeled, enabling calculations at any percentile value. Logistic regression analysis incorporating blastocyst grade and culture duration as explanatory variables allowed for embryo selection based on a single indicator (i.e., the live birth rate). In the predictive model for live birth rate per oocyte pick-up, which included age, AMH levels, and number of retrieval cycles as explanatory variables, logistic regression analysis showed an AUC of 0.84 and an accuracy of 76.4%, demonstrating high predictive performance. Conclusion: Mathematical models of age-dependent oocyte quality and quantity were successfully developed. These models were integrated to construct a multi-variable predictive tool for estimating live birth rates, offering valuable insights for reproductive decision-making.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.