Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40550911›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2025

Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly.

Rohit Radhakrishnan, Induja Pavithran, Valerie Livina, Jürgen Kurths, R I Sujith

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Rohit RadhakrishnanDepartment of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India.
Induja PavithranDepartment of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India.
Valerie LivinaData Science Department, National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, Teddington, TW11 0LW, UK.
Jürgen KurthsPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473, Potsdam, Germany. juergen.kurths@pik-potsdam.de.
R I SujithDepartment of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India. sujith@iitm.ac.in.

Funding

Department of Science and Technology, Government of India SERB/CRG/2020/003051IoE initiative SP22231222CPETWOCTSHOC
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Tipping (or sudden transition) from a desirable state to an undesirable one can result in catastrophic changes, affecting natural environments, human societies and economies. Early warning signals (EWSs) are developed to forewarn such an impending tipping. However, when control parameters are varied fast, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points; this questions the applicability of EWSs in preventing tipping. At the same time, the fast rate of change of parameter delays the actual tipping event, providing a borrowed window of safe operation. This delay in tipping offers a window for prevention through swift action. We demonstrate instances of both successful and unsuccessful preventions, in a paradigmatic thermoacoustic system-a horizontal Rijke tube. This work highlights the interplay of warning time, choice of prevention action and rate of variation of parameters in EWS-based prevention of tipping.

Identifiers

PMID40550911
PMCPMC12185748

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.