Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40549123›Full record

ArticleFrontiers of medicine2025

Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.

Hongrui Zhao, Zhenping Zhao, Xuan Yang, Yuchang Zhou, Ainan Jia, Jiangmei Liu, Peng Yin, Yamin Bai, Zhenxing Yang, Maigeng Zhou and 1 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers of medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Trial
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Hongrui Zhao *National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Zhenping Zhao *National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Xuan YangNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Yuchang ZhouNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Ainan JiaNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Jiangmei LiuNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Peng YinNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Yamin BaiNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Zhenxing YangNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Maigeng ZhouNational Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China. zhoumaigeng@ncncd.chinacdc.cn.
Xiujuan ZhangDepartment of Endocrinology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China. zhangxiujuan79@163.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.

Indexed as

Diabetes MellitusMortality, PrematureAdultChinaFemaleGoalsHumansMaleMiddle Ageddiabetesmortalitypremature mortalityprojection

Identifiers

PMID40549123

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.