Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models.

Xiaoqing Cheng, Zehui Zhang, Weili Kang, Xuefeng Zhang, Hui Peng, Changjun Bao

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

0citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Xiaoqing ChengJiangsu Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Zehui ZhangThe University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.

Weili KangYangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yangzhou, China.

Xuefeng ZhangJiangsu Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Hui PengGuSu Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.

Changjun BaoJiangsu Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to evaluate Hepatitis E incidence trends by age, period, and birth cohort in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 and project the future trends. Methods: Data on Hepatitis E cases in Jiangsu Province were sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. Joinpoint regression models analyzed annual percentage changes. Age-period-cohort model decomposed and Bayesian age-period-cohort projected the trends. Results: Between 2007 and 2021, a total of 46180 cases of Hepatitis E were reported. Both the overall and sex-specific trends revealed a single inflection point, and the average annual percentage change was -3.63% (95% CI: -7.33% ∼ -0.87%, Conclusion: Hepatitis E incidence has decreased from 2007 to 2021 for male in Jiangsu Province, and Age-period-cohort analysis revealed sex differences, which may be associated with different exposure routes. Continuous surveillance and timely interventions are essential to 65-69 age group.

Indexed as

Age-period-cohort modelBayesian age-period-cohort modelHepatitis EJoinpoint regression modelPublic health

Identifiers

PMID40547860

DOI10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.011

PMCPMC12180998

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

LicenceCC BY-NC-ND

Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.