ArticleWorld journal of gastrointestinal oncology2025
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative venous thromboembolism risk in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.
Article in World journal of gastrointestinal oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundFew studies have specifically modeled the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, although HCC is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram that accurately predicts the risk of VTE in patients after HCC surgery.
aimTo develop and validate a nomogram to accurately predict the risk of VTE in postoperative HCC patients by integrating clinical and laboratory risk factors. The model seeks to provide a user-friendly tool for identifying high-risk individuals who may benefit from targeted anticoagulation therapy, thereby improving clinical decision-making and patient outcomes.
methodsData from patients who underwent HCC surgery at Chongqing University Cancer Hospital in China were analyzed. Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, independent risk factors for VTE were identified and integrated into a nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed
resultsOf 905 postoperative HCC patients were included in the study. The nomogram incorporated eight independent risk factors for VTE: Karnofsky Performance Scale, base disease, cancer stage (tumor-node-metastasis), chemotherapy, D-dimer concentration, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, and fibrinogen. The C-index for the nomogram model was 0.825 in the training cohort and 0.820 in the validation cohort, indicating good discriminative ability. Calibration plots of the model revealed high concordance between the predicted probabilities and observed outcomes.
conclusionWe developed and validated a novel nomogram that can accurately estimate the risk of VTE in individual postoperative HCC patients. This model can identify high-risk patients who may benefit from targeted anticoagulation therapy.
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