Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40546072›Full record

ArticleCirculation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes2025

Dynamic Updating Strategies to Assess Hospital Performance of Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement.

Jackie Pollack, Wei Yang, George J Arnaoutakis, Michael J Kallan, Stephen E Kimmel

Abstract readComparative StudyMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jackie PollackDepartment of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville (J.P., S.E.K.).ORCID 0009-0009-4778-4221
Wei YangDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia (W.Y.).ORCID 0000-0001-8984-4389
George J ArnaoutakisDivision of Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery, University of Texas at Austin Dell Medical School (G.J.A.).ORCID 0000-0002-7648-0747
Michael J KallanCenter for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (M.J.K.).
Stephen E KimmelDepartment of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville (J.P., S.E.K.).ORCID 0000-0003-3673-2361

Funding

Translational Science Training to Reduce the Impact of Alcohol on HIV InfectionT32AA025877 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI Robert L Cook, DEBRA E LYON · 2018 to 2026
$3.3M
Dynamic Prediction Modeling to Improve Clinical PredictionsR01HL141294 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI KIMMEL, STEPHEN E. · 2018 to 2021
$2.3M
NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL141294NIAAA NIH HHS T32 AA025877
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPrediction models determining expected outcomes are infrequently updated (ie, static), which may reduce accuracy and misclassify hospital performance over time. Dynamic models incorporate changes over time and may improve accuracy and fairness in hospital comparisons. This study evaluated whether dynamic updating, compared with a static model, altered hospital rankings and outlier detection among surgical aortic valve replacement patients.

methodsThis retrospective cohort study assessed performance across 53 hospitals using claims data from the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council. A multivariable logistic regression model using clinical and demographic variables was developed on data from 1999 to 2006 to predict 30-day postoperative mortality, then applied to testing data from 2007 to 2018 to compare 4 strategies: (1) a static model with fixed parameters, (2) an annual correction factor based on The Society of Thoracic Surgeons methodology, (3) calibration regression for annual recalibration, and (4) dynamic logistic state space model to continuously update model coefficients. Performance was evaluated using observed-to-expected ratios and

resultsThe training sample included 14 070 patients (mean age 66.6; 43.1% women); the testing sample included 29 127 patients (mean age 67.4; 39.1% women). The static model had the widest

conclusionsStatic models may misclassify hospital performance and rankings. Dynamic strategies influence outlier detection and change hospital rankings over time. Regular model updates may better reflect current performance, supporting fairer hospital comparisons.

Indexed as

Aortic ValveHeart Valve Prosthesis ImplantationHospitalsOutcome and Process Assessment, Health CareProcess Assessment, Health CareQuality Indicators, Health CareAgedAged, 80 and overDatabases, FactualFemaleHospital MortalityHumansMaleMiddle AgedPennsylvaniaRetrospective Studiesaortic valvecalibrationhospitalsmortalityquality indicators, heatlh care

Identifiers

PMID40546072
PMCPMC12221213

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.