Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40538120›Full record

ArticleJournal of surgical oncology2025

Predicting Breast Reconstruction Readmission, Reoperation, and Prolonged Length of Stay: A Machine Learning Approach.

Ariel J Gabay, Jonlin Chen, Carrie S Stern, Chris Gibbons, Babak Mehrara, Jonas A Nelson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of surgical oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Ariel J GabayPlastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York, USA.
Jonlin ChenPlastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York, USA.
Carrie S SternPlastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York, USA.
Chris GibbonsOracle Health Data Intelligence, Oracle, Austin, Texas, USA.
Babak MehraraPlastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York, USA.
Jonas A NelsonPlastic and Reconstructive Surgery Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0329-4422

Funding

X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHYP30CA008748 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI SELWYN M VICKERS · 1985 to 2026
$347.4M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA008748This study was funded in part by the Plastic Surgery Foundation Research Fellowship Grant, awarded to Jonlin Chen.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPredicting short-term postoperative complications after breast reconstruction is critical for improving patient outcomes and reducing costs. This study investigated the utility of machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict complications in breast reconstruction patients.

methodsData were collected from patients who underwent autologous, implant, and tissue expander-based reconstruction in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database (2020-2022). Six ML models were trained to predict 30-day readmission, 30-day reoperation, and prolonged length of stay (LOS). Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and Brier score. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values ranked predictors influencing model outcomes.

resultsA total of 27 718 patients (5584 autologous; 8170 implant; 13 964 TE) were included. Top-performing models showed moderate to strong predictive performance across cohorts for all complications. AUCs ranged from 0.614 to 0.861. The highest AUCs were achieved for prolonged LOS in implants patients (AUC 0.861) and for 30-day readmission in the delayed autologous cohort (AUC 0.859). Key predictors of complications included operative time, BMI, age, reconstruction timing, and ASA class.

conclusionML can predict short-term postoperative outcomes in breast reconstruction patients. With further model refinement and data quality optimization, these models may improve preoperative risk stratification and patient outcomes in breast reconstruction.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsLength of StayMachine LearningMammaplastyPatient ReadmissionPostoperative ComplicationsReoperationAdultFemaleHumansMiddle AgedRetrospective Studiesautologousbreast reconstructionimplantmachine learningprolonged length of stayreadmissionreoperation

Identifiers

PMID40538120
PMCPMC13471138

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.