ArticleRoyal Society open science2025
A multiscale stochastic cellular automata model for dispersion of mountain pine beetles.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
We construct a multiscale model of dispersion of mountain pine beetles in western North American forests. Dispersion is modelled at a macroscale (regional scale) by a novel nonlinear stochastic process for population density. This is coupled to a microscale (tree scale) model of population dynamics using a sequential approach, which assumes that dispersion occurs on a slower time scale than local dynamics. We conduct a numerical investigation of the multiscale model properties. While the model depends on a relatively small number of parameters, it can produce a wide range of behaviours, including dispersion patterns qualitatively similar to those of mountain pine beetle infestations. We also conduct a Bayesian calibration for key parameters in the model using synthetic and real data.
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