Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40533517›Full record

ArticleNature genetics2025

Incorporating genetic data improves target trial emulations and informs the use of polygenic scores in randomized controlled trial design.

Jakob German, Zhiyu Yang, Sarah Urbut, Pekka Vartiainen, FinnGen, Pradeep Natarajan, Elisabetta Patorno, Zoltan Kutalik, Anthony Philippakis, Andrea Ganna

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature genetics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Jakob GermanInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0002-1257-7782
Zhiyu YangInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8074-838X
Sarah UrbutDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1135-9647
Pekka VartiainenInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5803-9571
FinnGen
Pradeep NatarajanCenter for Genomic Medicine Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8402-7435
Elisabetta PatornoCardiovascular Research Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8809-9898
Zoltan KutalikUniversity Center for Primary Care and Public Health, Lausanne, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8285-7523
Anthony PhilippakisEric and Wendy Schmidt Center, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Andrea GannaInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. andrea.ganna@helsinki.fi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8147-240X

Funding

Broad Institute Fellowship by the Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) remain the gold standard for evaluating medical interventions, yet ethical, practical and financial constraints often necessitate reliance on observational data and trial emulations. This study explores how integrating genetic data can enhance both emulated and traditional trial designs. Using FinnGen (n = 425,483), we emulated four major cardiometabolic RCTs and showed how reduced differences in polygenic scores (PGS) between trial arms track improvement in study design. Simulation studies reveal that PGS alone cannot fully adjust for unmeasured confounding. Instead, Mendelian randomization analyses can be used to detect likely confounders. Finally, trial emulations provide a platform to assess and refine PGS implementation for genetic enrichment strategies. By comparing associations of PGS with trial outcomes in the general population and emulated trial cohorts, we highlight the need to validate prognostic enrichment approaches in trial-relevant populations. These results highlight the growing potential of incorporating genetic information to optimize clinical trial design.

Indexed as

Multifactorial InheritanceRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicResearch DesignComputer SimulationHumansMendelian Randomization Analysis

Identifiers

PMID40533517
PMCPMC12283355

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.