ArticlePLoS computational biology2025
Predicting antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination from sparse serological data.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Longitudinal study of the immunological response to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in Instituto Português de Oncologia of Coimbra professionals.IJID regions · 2026Article
- Quantification of the IgG antibody response half-life for hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Vaccination against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) generates an antibody response that shows large inter-individual variability. This variability complicates the use of antibody levels as a correlate of protection and the evaluation of population- and individual-level infection risk without access to broad serological testing. Here, we applied a mathematical model of antibody kinetics to capture individual anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody trajectories and to identify factors driving the humoral immune response. Subsequently, we evaluated model predictions and inferred the corresponding duration of protection for new individuals based on a single antibody measurement, assuming sparse access to serological testing. We observe a reduced antibody response in older and in male individuals, and in individuals with autoimmune diseases, diabetes and immunosuppression, using data from a longitudinal cohort study conducted in healthcare workers at Sheba Medical Center, Israel, following primary vaccination with the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine. Our results further suggest that model predictions of an individual's antibody response to vaccination can be used to predict the duration of protection when serological data is limited, highlighting the potential of our approach to estimate infection risk over time on both the population and individual level to support public health decision-making in future pandemics.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.