Innovative nomogram for predictive risk stratification of aspiration pneumonia in post-stroke dysphagia patients.

Background: Post-stroke dysphagia (PSD) affects up to 76% of stroke patients and increases aspiration pneumonia (AP) risk, leading to higher mortality among older survivors. Current risk assessment tools for AP in PSD patients lack precision. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of 7,134 stroke patients admitted to Jinshan Hospital from 2019 to 2023. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify AP predictors and constructed a nomogram model using these predictors. Model performance was evaluated using bootstrap resampling, calibration, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was conducted on 30% of cases, and external validation was performed on 500 PSD patients from community health centers. Results: Among 2,663 PSD patients, 578 (21.7%) developed AP. Independent predictors included age, stroke severity, hyperlipidemia, hyperhomocysteinemia, heart failure, CRP, WBC, neutrophil ratio, Hb, FBG, prealbumin, BNP, and serum sodium. The nomogram model showed excellent discrimination (C-index: 0.885) and good agreement between predicted and observed AP probabilities. It provided net benefit across various threshold probabilities. Conclusion: Our study developed the first dedicated nomogram for AP risk prediction in PSD patients, incorporating novel predictor combinations and demonstrating robust validation across multi-center cohorts. This fills an important clinical need under community conditions by enabling early identification of high-risk PSD patients using routinely available clinical variables.