Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40524991›Full record

ArticleCureus2025

Lumbar Disc Degeneration and Vertebral Fracture at the Thoracolumbar Junction Are Risk Factors for Chronic Low Back Pain With Disability: Seven Years' Follow-Up of the Wakayama Spine Study.

Naomi Iwane, Hiroshi Hashizume, Shizumasa Murata, Kanae Mure, Hiroyuki Oka, Toshiko Iidaka, Masatoshi Teraguchi, Keiji Nagata, Yuyu Ishimoto, Masanari Takami and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cureus, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Naomi IwaneSchool of Health and Nursing Science, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Hiroshi HashizumeSchool of Health and Nursing Science, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Shizumasa MurataDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Kanae MureDepartment of Public Health, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Hiroyuki OkaDivision of Musculoskeletal AI System Development, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JPN.
Toshiko IidakaDepartment of Preventive Medicine for Locomotive Organ Disorders, 22nd Century Medical and Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JPN.
Masatoshi TeraguchiDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Keiji NagataDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Yuyu IshimotoDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Masanari TakamiDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Shunji TsutsuiDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Hiroshi IwasakiDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Sakae TanakaDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JPN.
Hiroshi YamadaDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Wakayama Medical University, Wakayama, JPN.
Noriko YoshimuraDepartment of Preventive Medicine for Locomotive Organ Disorders, 22nd Century Medical and Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JPN.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Introduction Low back pain (LBP) is the leading cause of disability worldwide, with its burden increasing in aging societies such as Japan. Although degenerative spinal changes like lumbar disc degeneration (DD), vertebral fractures, and lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) are frequently identified on MRI, their combined longitudinal impact on disabling chronic low back pain (DCLBP) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to identify baseline MRI-detected lumbar spinal changes that independently predict disabling chronic low back pain in a general Japanese population. Methods This population-based longitudinal study included 663 community-dwelling Japanese adults from the Wakayama Spine Study, a sub-cohort of the nationwide Research on Osteoarthritis/Osteoporosis Against Disability (ROAD) study. Baseline whole-spine MRI and clinical assessments were conducted between 2008 and 2009, with a seven-year follow-up from 2015 to 2016. MRI findings included Pfirrmann-graded lumbar DD, Genant-graded vertebral fractures at T11-L1, and Suri-graded LSS. The primary outcome was DCLBP, defined as LBP lasting more than three months and an Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) score ≥21%. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of DCLBP. Results Of 653 participants who completed follow-up with valid ODI responses, 91 (13.9%) had DCLBP. Older age (OR: 1.07 per year, p < 0.0001), female sex (OR: 3.69, p < 0.0001), higher BMI (OR: 1.11 per kg/m², p < 0.0001), greater vertebral fracture burden (OR: 1.32 per grade point, p = 0.0024), and more severe lumbar DD (OR: 1.14 per grade point, p = 0.0305) were independently associated with DCLBP. Conclusion Lumbar DD, vertebral fractures at T11-L1, and LSS are independent risk factors for disabling chronic LBP in the general population. These findings underscore the importance of comprehensive MRI-based spinal assessment in identifying high-risk individuals for early intervention in aging societies.

Indexed as

chronic low back painlongitudinal studylumbar disc degenerationlumbar spinal stenosisvertebral fracture

Identifiers

PMID40524991
PMCPMC12169606

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.