Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40524178›Full record

ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2025

The impact of hot nights on dengue incidence: a nationwide case crossover study in Brazil.

Mintao Su, Junjun Chen, Zhisheng Liang, Qinfeng Zhou, Junxiong Ma, Huining Yang, Shaym Biswal, Murugappan Ramanathan, Haojun Fan, Fan Dai and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Mintao SuDepartment of Global Health, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xue Yuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
Junjun ChenDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.
Zhisheng LiangDepartment of Global Health, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xue Yuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
Qinfeng ZhouDepartment of Global Health, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xue Yuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
Junxiong MaDepartment of Global Health, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xue Yuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
Huining YangDepartment of Disease Prevention and Control, Third Medical Center of General Hospital of the People's Liberation Army, Beijing, China.
Shaym BiswalBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.
Murugappan RamanathanSchool of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.
Haojun FanInstitute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
Fan DaiCalifornia-China Climate Institute, University of California Berkeley School of Law, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Wei HuangInstitute of Environmental Medicine, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, 100191, China.
Minghui RenDepartment of Global Health, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xue Yuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
Zhenyu ZhangDepartment of Global Health, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xue Yuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China. zzy@pku.edu.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease, is influenced by temperature. As global warming intensifies, the frequency of hot nights has increased. However, the relationship between hot nights and dengue transmission remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of hot night exposures on dengue incidence.

methodsWe collected individual dengue data from Brazil's SINAN database (2014-2021), covering 5,708,691 patients. Hot night exposures, including the average maximum nighttime temperatures, hot night excess, and hot night duration, were calculated using the ERA5-land dataset. A case-crossover design was employed to assess the association between each hot night exposure and dengue incidence using conditional logistic regression.

resultsThe average maximum nighttime temperature, hot night excess, and hot night duration were all significantly associated with increased risk of dengue, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.86 (95% CI 1.86-1.87), 1.01 (95% CI 1.01-1.01), and 1.05 (95% CI 1.05-1.05), respectively. The attributable risks for each hot night exposure were 14.02% (95% CI 13.49%-14.60%), 27.80% (95% CI 27.33%-28.21%), and 26.95% (95% CI 26.58%-27.38%), respectively, when the exposure value was above the 90th percentile of its distribution.

conclusionsHot night exposures were associated with an increased risk of dengue in Brazil. The public health burden of dengue is likely to rise with increasing hot night exposures, especially as hot nights become more frequent worldwide. Implementation of targeted vector control strategies and improved access to cooling equipment, such as air-conditioning, may serve as important mitigation measures.

Indexed as

DengueHot TemperatureAdolescentAdultBrazilChildChild, PreschoolCross-Over StudiesFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedYoung AdultAttributable riskBrazilDengueHot nightsTemperature

Identifiers

PMID40524178
PMCPMC12168315

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.