Public Discourse Toward Older Drivers in Japan Using Social Media Data From 2010 to 2022: Longitudinal Analysis.

Background: As the global population ages, concerns about older drivers are intensifying. Although older drivers are not inherently more dangerous than other age groups, traditional surveys in Japan reveal persistent negative sentiments toward them. This discrepancy suggests the importance of analyzing discourse on social media, where public perceptions and societal attitudes toward older drivers are actively shaped. Objective: This study aimed to quantify long-term public discourse on older drivers in Japan through Twitter (subsequently rebranded X), a leading social media platform. The specific objectives were to (1) examine the sentiments toward older drivers in tweets, (2) identify the textual contents and topics discussed in the tweets, and (3) analyze how sentiments correlate with various variables. Methods: We collected Japanese tweets related to older drivers from 2010 to 2022. Each quarter, we (1) applied to the Japanese version of the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count dictionary for sentiment analysis, (2) employed 2-layer nonnegative matrix factorization for dynamic topic modeling, and (3) applied correlation analyses to explore the relationships of sentiments with crash rates, data counts, and topics. Results: We obtained 2,625,807 tweets from 1,052,976 unique users discussing older drivers. The number of tweets has steadily increased, with significant peaks in 2016, 2019, and 2021, coinciding with high-profile traffic crashes. Sentiment analysis revealed a predominance of negative emotions (n=383,520, 62.42%), anger (n=106,767, 17.38%), anxiety (n=114,234, 18.59%), and risk (n=357,311, 58.15%). Topic modeling identified 29 dynamic topics, including those related to driving licenses, crash events, self-driving technology, and traffic safety. The crash events topic, which increased by 0.28% per year, showed a strong correlation with negative emotion (r=0.76, P<.001) and risk (r=0.72, P<.001). Conclusions: This 13-year study quantified public discourse on older drivers using Twitter data, revealing a paradoxical increase in negative sentiment and perceived risk, despite a decline in the actual crash rate among older drivers. These findings underscore the importance of reconsidering licensing policies, promoting self-driving systems, and fostering a more balanced understanding to mitigate undue prejudice and support continued safe mobility for older adults.