Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40520961›Full record

ArticleOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)2025

Integrating behavioural science and epidemiology to improve early detection of zoonotic swine influenza in the Netherlands.

Juliette Fraser, Ewa Pacholewicz, Peter Hobbelen, Thomas Hagenaars, Ron Bergevoet, Michel Counotte

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Juliette FraserWageningen Social & Economic Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Ewa PacholewiczWageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University and Research, Lelystad, the Netherlands.
Peter HobbelenWageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University and Research, Lelystad, the Netherlands.
Thomas HagenaarsWageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University and Research, Lelystad, the Netherlands.
Ron BergevoetWageningen Social & Economic Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Michel CounotteWageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University and Research, Lelystad, the Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background and objectives: The Netherlands faces zoonotic disease risks due to its dense human and livestock populations. The 2009 H1N1 outbreak highlighted the pandemic potential of influenza virus reassortment. Effective preparedness requires integrating behavioural and epidemiological models. Human behaviour, shaped by personal, social, and institutional factors, is critical in detecting, intervening, and treating diseases. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), a framework was developed integrating knowledge from the TPB to improve early detection and response, using (zoonotic) swine influenza as a case study. Material and methods: Within the framework we defined the desired outcome: timely detection and notification of symptomatic (and hypothetical zoonotic) swine influenza to prevent its spread. Actions, such as symptom recognition and disease reporting, were linked to key drivers extracted from the TPB and disease transmission modelling. Expert elicitation estimated the likelihood of action for different farmer profiles, while disease transmission modelling assessed farm-to-farm spread probabilities. Simulations integrated these probabilities to evaluate intervention effectiveness across different scenarios. Results: The framework successfully combined behavioural science and epidemiology, offering nuanced estimates of intervention effectiveness. For early detection, 95 % of farmers were estimated to notify their veterinarian within 13 days post-infection. Key factors influencing action included symptom recognition and disease spread extent. The farmer profiles influenced response likelihood, while human infections linked to outbreaks had minimal impact. Farm density and assumptions about transmission probabilities significantly affected the likelihood of spread before notification. Discussion and conclusion: The framework provides a systematic approach for integrating social and epidemiological insights to support evidence-based policies. The work can be further enhanced by complementing expert judgement with more extensive stakeholder surveys, randomized scenario presentations, and immersive methods. This pragmatic tool aids policymakers in designing targeted interventions for zoonotic disease preparedness.

Indexed as

Earl detectionEpidemiologySocial sciencesSwine influenzathe NetherlandsZoonoses

Identifiers

PMID40520961
PMCPMC12167494

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.