Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40510258›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of preventive cardiology2025

Performance of PREVENT and pooled cohort equations for predicting 10-Year ASCVD risk in the UK Biobank.

Matthew Ambrosio, Pamela L Alebna, Terence Lee, Alec Friedman, Nicholas Ws Chew, Carolyn Burns, Phillip Duncan, W Gregory Hundley, Le Kang, Anurag Mehta

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of preventive cardiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. The PREVENT Risk Equations and Cardiovascular Prevention in East Asia.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2026
    Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. REPRIEVE Analysis of New Cardiovascular Risk Calculators in HIV: Underpredicting Risk Means Preventing Fewer Heart Attacks.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Observational
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  14. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Matthew AmbrosioVirginia Commonwealth University Department of Biostatistics, Richmond, VA, USA.
Pamela L AlebnaPauley Heart Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.
Terence LeePauley Heart Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.
Alec FriedmanVirginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, Richmond, VA, USA.
Nicholas Ws ChewDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.
Carolyn BurnsPauley Heart Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.
Phillip DuncanPauley Heart Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.
W Gregory HundleyPauley Heart Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.
Le KangVirginia Commonwealth University Department of Biostatistics, Richmond, VA, USA.
Anurag MehtaPauley Heart Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) were created in 2013 to assess ASCVD risk in primary prevention. In 2023 the American Heart Association published the PREVENT equations to assess the risk of cardiovascular disease in primary prevention. The comparative performance of PCE and PREVENT for predicting 10-year ASCVD risk has not been evaluated in an external large-scale epidemiologic cohort. Methods: The study population includes participants of the UK Biobank who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease. 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated using the PCE and PREVENT equations. Harrel's C-Statistics and delta C-Statistics were calculated for males and females to evaluate risk discrimination. Predicted 10-year risks were divided into deciles as well as risk groups for each equation and stratified by sex to compare predicted risk versus observed risk within each risk group, with calibration slopes calculated by decile. Sensitivity and specificity were also analyzed to assess statin eligibility. Results: The final cohort was 368,125 individuals ages 40-73 (mean age 56.2, 54.7 % female, 94.0 % white). The C-statistics for PCE were 0.729 (0.722-0.736) for females and 0.688 (0.683-0.693) for males; C-Statistics for PREVENT were 0.728 (0.721-0.735) for females and 0.687 (0.682-0.692) for males, with delta C-Statistics being 0.001 ( Conclusions: There is no significant difference in 10-year ASCVD risk discrimination between PCE and PREVENT equations. However, the PREVENT equations demonstrate better calibration in the UK Biobank.

Indexed as

ASCVDPooled cohort equationsPREVENT equationsPrimary preventionRisk assessmentRisk calibrationRisk discrimination

Identifiers

PMID40510258
PMCPMC12159927

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.