ArticleCancers2025
Machine Learning for Predicting the Low Risk of Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: Toward a Dynamic and Personalized Postoperative Management Strategy.
Article in Cancers, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Postoperative pancreatic fistula: a bibliometric analysis of research trends and a meta-analysis on the association with intra pancreatic fat deposition.Scientific reports · 2025Pooled it
- Optimal Timing of Serum Lipase for Early Prediction of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy.Cancers · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPostoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) remains one of the most relevant complications following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), significantly impacting short-term outcomes and delaying adjuvant therapies. Current predictive models offer limited accuracy, often failing to incorporate early postoperative data. This retrospective study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict the absence and severity of POPF using clinical, surgical, and early postoperative variables.
methodsData from 216 patients undergoing PD were analyzed. A total of twenty-four machine learning (ML) algorithms were systematically evaluated using the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and AUC-ROC metrics. Among these, the GradientBoostingClassifier consistently outperformed all other models, demonstrating the best predictive performance, particularly in identifying patients at low risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) during the early postoperative period. To enhance transparency and interpretability, a SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was applied, highlighting the key role of early postoperative biomarkers in the model predictions.
resultsThe performance of the GradientBoostingClassifier was also directly compared to that of a traditional logistic regression model, confirming the superior predictive performance over conventional approaches. This study demonstrates that ML can effectively stratify POPF risk, potentially supporting early drain removal and optimizing postoperative management.
conclusionsWhile the model showed promising performance in a single-center cohort, external validation across different surgical settings will be essential to confirm its generalizability and clinical utility. The integration of ML into clinical workflows may represent a step forward in delivering personalized and dynamic care after pancreatic surgery.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.