ArticleCancers2025
Global Burden of Pancreatic Cancer Among Individuals Aged 15-59 Years in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for the GBD 2021 and Projections to 2045.
Article in Cancers, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of frailty on outcomes of pancreatic surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in nutrition · 2026Pooled it
- Emerging Therapeutic Landscapes for KRAS-Mutant Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Beyond the "Undruggable" Paradigm.The Turkish journal of gastroenterology : the official journal of Turkish Society of Gastroenterology · 2026Review
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPancreatic cancer (PC), the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality globally, exhibits a persistently low five-year survival rate (13%). While the global burden of PC among individuals aged 15-59 years has declined, trends in China remain understudied. This study evaluates global and national trends in PC incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 and projects trajectories to 2045.
methodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we calculated age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 204 countries/territories. Joinpoint (version: 5.3.0.0) regression identified temporal trends via average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling forecasted future burdens.
resultsGlobally, PC burden declined among 15-59-year-olds (AAPC for incidence: -0.8%, 95% UI: -1.2 to -0.4). However, China experienced a significant reversal after 2009, with incidence rising by 1.5% annually (95% UI: 0.9-2.1), disproportionately affecting males. Smoking (contributing to 22.2% of DALYs in China) and high fasting plasma glucose (15%) emerged as key modifiable risk factors, while elevated BMI exacerbated burdens in high SDI regions (3.1% of DALYs). Projections indicate a continued surge in China's PC burden by 2045, particularly among males (incidence projected to increase by 50% from 2010 to 2045).
conclusionsHigh SDI regions exhibit concentrated PC burdens linked to lifestyle factors, whereas China's rising trends align with healthcare expansion and metabolic disease proliferation. Targeted interventions-smoking cessation, glycemic control, and weight management-are imperative to mitigate growing burdens in younger populations. This study highlights the urgent need for region-specific strategies to address evolving epidemiological challenges in PC prevention and control.
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