ArticleBMJ open2025
Development and validation of a practical predicting model for early mortality in polytrauma patients: secondary analysis from Switzerland.
Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07208110 (Factors Associated With Mortality by Trauma in the Intensive Care Unit in Villavicencio, Colombia. A Trial Based on a Discharge Registry.), which is not on this map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Factors Associated With Mortality by Trauma in the Intensive Care Unit in Villavicencio, Colombia. A Trial Based on a Discharge Registry.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Prognostic model and U-shaped SBP-risk correlation in unstable pelvic fractures with TBI.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo establish a practical tool for the prediction of mortality in polytrauma patients.
designSecondary analysis of data from a public database.
settingA tertiary hospital in Switzerland.
participants2406 polytrauma patients were enrolled in this study, and the mean age was 44.4±19.9 years with 74.8% men.
interventionsNo. OUTCOME MEASURES: Logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between early deaths and variables. Nomogram model was established based on predictive factors. Model effectiveness was assessed by its discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. Causal mediation analysis was used to explore the relationships among risk factors.
resultsIndependent predictive variables analysed by logistic regression were: age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), base excess (BE) and serum lactate. A nomogram model was established based on those risk factors, and the area under the curve of the nomogram for early death was 0.85, which was better than existing traumatic scorings. Besides, calibration plots and decision curve analysis demonstrated better performance than traumatic scorings with better internal validation. The effect of GCS on early death partly depended on BE and lactate.
conclusionOur study found that early mortality was associated with age, GCS, BE and serum lactate on admission, and lactate was more important in early death. A simple prediction model of early mortality in polytrauma patients was developed with accessible parameters assessed on admission.
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