ArticleOxford review of economic policy2020
A cost-benefit analysis of the COVID-19 disease.
Article in Oxford review of economic policy, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers.
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Who cites it
38 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimizing infectious disease mitigation under dynamic conditions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Article
- The optimisation of public health emergency governance: a simulation study based on COVID-19 pandemic control policy.Globalization and health · 2023Article
- Path integral control of a stochastic multi-risk SIR pandemic model.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2023Article
- Modeling and multi-objective optimal control of reaction-diffusion COVID-19 system due to vaccination and patient isolation.Applied mathematical modelling · 2023Article
- Physical distancing versus testing with self-isolation for controlling an emerging epidemic.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Coefficient identification in a SIS fractional-order modelling of economic losses in the propagation of COVID-19.Journal of computational science · 2023Article
- Economic evaluation of strategies against coronavirus: a systematic review.Health economics review · 2023Review
- Preferences for COVID-19 epidemic control measures among French adults: a discrete choice experiment.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2023Article
- Estimation of Lockdowns' Impact on Well-Being in Selected Countries: An Application of Novel Bayesian Methods and Google Search Queries Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou, China.Journal of Asian economics · 2022Article
- On the effectiveness of COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns: Pan metron ariston.BMC public health · 2022Article
- The economics of stop-and-go epidemic control.Socio-economic planning sciences · 2022Article
- Optimal intervention strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic effects.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Article
- Burden of Covid-19 restrictions: National, regional and global estimates.EClinicalMedicine · 2022Article
- A "Ballpark" Assessment of Social Distancing Efficiency in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The anxiety of not knowing: Diagnosis uncertainty about COVID-19.Current psychology (New Brunswick, N.J.) · 2022Article
- Predictors of mask-wearing during the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from South Africa.Translational behavioral medicine · 2022Article
- Cost-analysis of COVID-19 sample collection, diagnosis, and contact tracing in low resource setting: The case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.PloS one · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The British government has been debating how to escape from the lockdown without provoking a resurgence of the COVID-19 disease. There is a growing recognition of the damage the lockdown has caused to economic and social life. This paper presents a simple cost-benefit analysis inspired by optimal control theory and incorporating the SIR model of disease propagation. It also reports simulations informed by the theoretical discussion. The optimal path for government intervention is computed under a variety of conditions. These include a cap on the permitted level of infection to avoid overload of the health system, and the introduction of a test and trace system. We quantify the benefits of early intervention to control the disease. We also examine how the government's valuation of life influences the optimal path. A 10-week lockdown is only optimal if the value of life for COVID-19 victims exceeds £10m. The study is based on a standard but simple epidemiological model, and should therefore be regarded as presenting a methodological framework rather than giving policy prescriptions.
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