ArticleOxford review of economic policy2020
Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective.
Article in Oxford review of economic policy, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 109 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
109 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 reduced the incidence of infectious diseases: a controlled interrupted time-series study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2023Pooled it
- Economic costs related to coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A systematic literature review.Science progressPooled it
- Official incidence and trends of occupational musculoskeletal disorders in Turkey in 2014-2024: implications of possible underreporting.Arhiv za higijenu rada i toksikologiju · 2026Article
- Systemic risk mitigation in supply chains through network rewiring.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Long COVID: The evolution of household welfare in developing countries during the pandemic.World development · 2024Article
- Estimating the loss of economic predictability from aggregating firm-level production networks.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature human behaviour · 2024Article
- Big data-driven spatio-temporal heterogeneity analysis of Beijing's catering service industry during the COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- The demand for online grocery shopping: COVID-induced changes in grocery shopping behavior of Canadian consumers.PloS one · 2024Article
- Identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants in indoor dust.PloS one · 2024Article
- Measuring unequal distribution of pandemic severity across census years, variants of concern and interventions.Population health metrics · 2023Article
- Analysis of retail sector research evolution and trends during COVID-19.Technological forecasting and social change · 2023Article
- Occupational models from 42 million unstructured job postings.Patterns (New York, N.Y.) · 2023Article
- Graph Spatio-Temporal Networks for Manufacturing Sales Forecast and Prevention Policies in Pandemic Era.Computers & industrial engineering · 2023Article
- Corporate vulnerability in the US and China during COVID-19: A machine learning approach.Journal of economic asymmetries · 2023Article
- The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery.Journal of air transport management · 2023Article
- Should fiscal policies be centralized in a monetary union? A dynamic game approach.Central European journal of operations research · 2023Article
- Unfolding and modeling the recovery process after COVID lockdowns.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.Economic modelling · 2023Article
49 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy's GDP, jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to be output-constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining, and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants, and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply- and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks-we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.
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