Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40502538›Full record

ArticleNPJ climate and atmospheric science2025

Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery.

Laura E Revell, Michele T Bannister, Tyler F M Brown, Timofei Sukhodolov, Sandro Vattioni, John Dykema, David J Frame, John Cater, Gabriel Chiodo, Eugene Rozanov

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ climate and atmospheric science, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery.NPJ climate and atmospheric science · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Laura E RevellSchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences-Te Kura Matū, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Michele T BannisterSchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences-Te Kura Matū, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Tyler F M BrownSchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences-Te Kura Matū, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Timofei SukhodolovPhysikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland.
Sandro VattioniInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
John DykemaJohn A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA.
David J FrameSchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences-Te Kura Matū, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
John CaterDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Gabriel ChiodoInstituto de Geociencias(IGEO), CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain.
Eugene RozanovPhysikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios. Our 'ambitious' scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a -0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030. Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by 3.9%. Our 'conservative' scenario (884 launches/year) yields -0.17% annual, near-global depletion; current licensing rates suggest this scenario may be exceeded before 2030. Ozone losses are driven by the chlorine produced from solid rocket motor propellant, and black carbon which is emitted from most propellants. The ozone layer is slowly healing from the effects of CFCs, yet global-mean ozone abundances are still 2% lower than measured prior to the onset of CFC-induced ozone depletion. Our results demonstrate that ongoing and frequent rocket launches could delay ozone recovery. Action is needed now to ensure that future growth of the launch industry and ozone protection are mutually sustainable.

Indexed as

Atmospheric chemistryAtmospheric dynamicsBusiness and industry

Identifiers

PMID40502538
PMCPMC12148926

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.