Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40498487›Full record

ArticleJAMA network open2025

Scenario Projections of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalizations Averted Due to New Immunizations.

Chelsea L Hansen, Lawrence Lee, Samantha J Bents, Amanda C Perofsky, Kaiyuan Sun, Lea M Starita, Amanda Adler, Janet A Englund, Eric J Chow, Helen Y Chu and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JAMA network open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Chelsea L HansenBrotman Baty Institute, University of Washington, Seattle.
Lawrence LeePublic Health-Seattle & King County, Seattle, Washington.
Samantha J BentsFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
Amanda C PerofskyBrotman Baty Institute, University of Washington, Seattle.
Kaiyuan SunFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
Lea M StaritaBrotman Baty Institute, University of Washington, Seattle.
Amanda AdlerSeattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, Washington.
Janet A EnglundBrotman Baty Institute, University of Washington, Seattle.
Eric J ChowPublic Health-Seattle & King County, Seattle, Washington.
Helen Y ChuBrotman Baty Institute, University of Washington, Seattle.
Cécile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.

Funding

CDC HHS NU38OT000297
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Importance: In 2023, new immunization strategies became available for preventing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalizations in infants and older adults. Modeling studies to understand the population-level impact of their use are important for public health planning. Objective: To estimate the number of hospitalizations averted in 2023 to 2024 due to new RSV immunization strategies and provide scenario projections for future seasons. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model examined RSV hospitalizations in King County, Washington, from October 7, 2023, through April 26, 2025. The population of King County was disaggregated into infants younger than 6 months, infants aged 6 to 11 months, children aged 1 to 4 years, children/adults aged 5 to 59 years, adults aged 60 to 74 years, and adults aged 75 years or older. Exposures: Respiratory syncytial virus vaccination for adults aged 60 years or older, maternal RSV vaccination, and long-acting monoclonal antibodies (nirsevimab) for infants younger than 8 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of RSV hospitalizations averted in adults aged 60 years or older and infants younger than 1 year were estimated using an RSV transmission model calibrated to RSV hospitalizations. Results: The RSV transmission model simulated the population of King County, which includes approximately 2.3 million individuals, with 23 700 infants younger than 1 year and 446 500 adults aged 60 years or older. During the 2023 to 2024 RSV season, 21.2% of adults aged 60 to 74 years, 32.7% of adults aged 75 years or older, and 33.0% of infants were protected through active or passive immunization. A total of 125 (95% projection interval [PI], 77-192) RSV hospitalizations were averted, with most of the benefit observed in infants younger than 6 months (28.6% [95% PI, 26.9%-30.5%] reduction from baseline) and adults aged 75 years or older (14.8% [95% PI, 14.3%-15.5%] reduction from baseline). For the 2024 to 2025 season, optimistic scenarios of high immunization coverage (50% in older adults and 80% in infants) projected reductions of 29.8% (95% PI, 29.1%-30.8%) in adults aged 75 years or older and 68.8% (95% PI, 66.0%-71.7%) in infants younger than 6 months compared with a counterfactual scenario with no immunizations. Targeting infants eligible for catch-up doses of nirsevimab early in the season increased the proportion of RSV hospitalizations averted in infants aged 6 to 11 months from 31.7% (95% PI, 29.4%-33.9%) to 40.4% (95% PI, 39.0%-42.1%). If vaccine protection in adults aged 75 years or older waned by 50% in the second year after immunization, the proportion of RSV hospitalizations averted was projected to decrease to 22.2% (95% PI, 21.7%-23.0%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model of RSV immunizations, the results suggest a modest reduction in RSV-diagnosed hospitalizations during the 2023 to 2024 season due to limited availability of immunization products, particularly for infants. A higher uptake earlier in the season may lead to substantial reductions in RSV hospitalizations in the 2024 to 2025 season.

Indexed as

HospitalizationRespiratory Syncytial Virus InfectionsRespiratory Syncytial Virus VaccinesAdolescentAdultAgedChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansInfantMaleMiddle AgedRespiratory Syncytial Virus, HumanWashingtonRespiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID40498487
PMCPMC12159778

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.