Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40495015›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2025

Global burden of chikungunya virus infections and the potential benefit of vaccination campaigns.

Gabriel Ribeiro Dos Santos, Fariha Jawed, Christinah Mukandavire, Arminder Deol, Danny Scarponi, Leonard E G Mboera, Eric Seruyange, Mathieu J P Poirier, Samuel Bosomprah, Augustine O Udeze and 6 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 54 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
54citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

54 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Autoantibodies neutralizing type I interferons underlie a third of cases of Chikungunya virus encephalitis or myelitis.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Vector competence acrossJournal of virology · 2026
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Gabriel Ribeiro Dos SantosDepartment of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4668-8755
Fariha JawedDepartment of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Christinah MukandavireCoalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, London, UK.
Arminder DeolCoalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7154-5505
Danny ScarponiCoalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, London, UK.
Leonard E G MboeraSokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania.
Eric SeruyangeRwanda Military Teaching Hospital and University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda.
Mathieu J P PoirierYork University, Toronto, ON, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3842-0011
Samuel BosomprahDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana.
Augustine O UdezeUniversity of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5492-4925
Koussay DellagiPasteur Network, Paris, France.
Nathanael HozéUniversité Paris Cité, INSERM, IAME, Paris, France.
Jaffu ChilongolaKilimanjaro Christian Medical University College, Moshi, Tanzania.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2997-6747
Gheyath K NasrallahCollege of Health Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9252-1038
Simon CauchemezMathematicModelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR 2000 CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9186-4549
Henrik SaljeDepartment of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. hs743@cam.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3626-4254

Funding

Inter-regional study of transmission, adaptation and pathogenesis of viruses with pandemic potential in Southeast Asia and West/Central AfricaU01AI151758 · NIAID · INSTITUT PASTEUR · PI SAKUNTABHAI, ANAVAJ, SIMON-LORIERE, ETIENNE · 2020 to 2024
$6.7M
EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) 874735NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI151758U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) U01AI151758
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The first vaccine against chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has now been licensed; however, due to a limited knowledge of the underlying global burden, its potential to reduce disease burden remains unknown. We used data from seroprevalence studies, observed cases and mosquito distributions to quantify the underlying CHIKV burden in 180 countries and territories, and we explored the potential impact of vaccination campaigns. We estimate that 104 countries have experienced CHIKV transmission, covering 2.8 billion people, and that, in epidemic settings, the mean duration between outbreaks is 6.2 years, with 8.4% of the susceptible population infected per outbreak. Globally, there are 35 million annual infections, mainly in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Americas. Assuming a vaccine efficacy against disease of 70% and a protection against infection of 40%, vaccinating 50% of individuals over 12 years of age in places and times where the virus circulates would avert 4,436 infections, 0.34 deaths and 17 disability-adjusted life years per 100,000 doses used. These findings highlight the global burden of chikungunya and the potential of CHIKV vaccination campaigns.

Indexed as

Chikungunya FeverChikungunya virusVaccinationViral VaccinesAnimalsChildDisease OutbreaksGlobal HealthHumansSeroepidemiologic StudiesViral Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID40495015
PMCPMC12283390

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.