ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025
Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forcing closure suggests stronger aerosol forcing and higher climate sensitivity than the consensus.Science advances · 2026Article
- Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth's energy imbalance in recent decades.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance. Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating the effective forcing usually relies on climate models. Here, we present an estimate of effective radiative forcing that makes optimal use of observations. We use machine learning to learn the relationship between surface temperature and radiation caused by internal variability in a multimodel ensemble. Combining this with observations of surface temperature and the Earth's net radiative imbalance, we predict an effective forcing trend of 0.71 [Formula: see text] 0.21 Wm[Formula: see text] per decade for 2001-2024. This is an independent assessment of the observed effective radiative forcing since 1985, that can be updated simultaneously with available observations and aligns with our physical understanding of radiative feedbacks. We make advances to close the Earth's energy budget on annual timescales, by separating the influence of forcing versus the radiative response to surface temperature variations. Effective radiative forcing has substantially increased since 2021 and has not been countered by a strongly negative radiative response until 2024, consistent with exceptional warmth in 2023 and 2024.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.