Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40492564›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2025

Sustained excess all-cause mortality post COVID-19 in 21 countries: an ecological investigation.

Chryso Th Pallari, Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, Mohammad R Rahmanian Haghighi, Minh Tam Phan, Andreas Artemiou, Catherine M Bennett, Joseph Cuthbertson, Claudia Zimmermann, Eva Schernhammer and 32 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Paid and unpaid productivity losses across 28 European countries due to excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths from 2020 to 2023.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026
    Article
  4. Editorial: Recently Identified Global Trends in Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Modifiable Cancer Risk Factors.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

42 authors.

Chryso Th PallariPrimary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Souzana AchilleosPrimary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Annalisa QuattrocchiPrimary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Mohammad R Rahmanian HaghighiPrimary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Minh Tam PhanPrimary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Andreas ArtemiouInformation Technologies, University of Limassol, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Catherine M BennettInstitute for Health Transformation, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia.
Joseph CuthbertsonSchool of Medicine, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, Australia.
Claudia ZimmermannDepartment of Epidemiology, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Eva SchernhammerDepartment of Epidemiology, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Catharina VernemmenSciensano, Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Brussels, Belgium.
Serge Nganda MekogoSciensano, Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Brussels, Belgium.
Jackeline C P LobatoDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Collective Health (ISC), Fluminense Federal University Niterói, Niterói, Brazil.
Laylla MacedoInstitute of Studies in Collective Health, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Maria AthanasiadouHealth Monitoring Unit, Government of the Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Health, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Laust H MortensenDepartment of Public Health, Section of Social Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
Julia A CritchleyPopulation Health Research Institute, School of Medical and Health Sciences, City St George's, University of London, London, United Kingdom.
Lucy P GoldsmithDivision of Health Services Research and Management, School of Health and Psychological Sciences, City St George's, University of London, London, United Kingdom.
Gleb DenissovDepartment of Registers, National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.
Nolwenn Le MeurUniversity of Rennes, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sante Publique, CNRS, Inserm, Arènes, Rennes, Bretagne, France.ORCID 0000-0001-8451-4014
Levan KandelakiNational Center for Disease Control and Public Health, Head of the Population Registry Division of Department of Medical Statistics, Tbilisi, Georgia.
Nino ChikhladzeFaculty of Medicine, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
Kostas AthanasakisDepartment of Public Health Policy, University of West Attica, Egaleo, Attica, Greece.
Binyamin BinyaminyState of Israel Ministry of Health, Israel Center of Disease Control, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Tamar MaorState of Israel Ministry of Health, Israel Center of Disease Control, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Enza CarusoDepartment of Political Sciences, University of Perugia, Perugia, Umbria, Italy.
Giuseppe AmbrosioDivision of Cardiology and CERICLET, Department of Medicine, University of Perugia, Perugia, Umbria, Italy.
Cyndy MartialDemography/Census Unit, Statistics Mauritius, Port Louis, Mauritius.
Marie Chan SunFaculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Department of Medicine, University of Mauritius, Reduit, Moka, Mauritius.
Terje P HagenInstitute of Health and Society, Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo (UiO), Oslo, Norway.
Manuel BarronDepartment of Economics, Universidad del Pacifico, Lima, Peru.
Mario ChongDepartment of Engineering, Universidad del Pacifico, Lima, Peru.
Błażej ŁyszczarzDepartment of Health Economics, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Bydgoszcz, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Poland.
Ivan ErzenPublic Health School, National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
José Antonio Cernuda MartínezFaculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Asturias, Spain.
Pedro Arcos GonzálezFaculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Asturias, Spain.
Bo BurstromGlobal Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden.
Wenjing TaoGlobal Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden.
Qian HuangCenter for Rural Health and Research, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN, United States.
Antonis PolemitisUniversity of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Andreas CharalambousUniversity of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Christiana A DemetriouPrimary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.

Funding

University of Nicosia Medical School
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDespite widespread vaccination efforts, significant excess mortality continued in various countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to estimate excess mortality during 2022 in 21 countries and regions, and to examine the relationship of governmental control measures and vaccination rates with excess mortality during 2021-2 at an ecological level.

methodsExcess mortality for 2022 was estimated by analysing weekly mortality data from January 2020 to December 2022 across 21 countries and regions participating in the C-MOR consortium. This was achieved by comparing the observed age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 population to a baseline derived from historical data (2015-19). Governmental control measures and vaccination efforts were investigated for their association with weekly excess mortality during 2021-2 in multilevel models with country as a random effect.

resultsAll 21 countries experienced excess mortality in 2022, ranging from 8.6 (Peru) to 116.2 (Georgia) per 100 000 population, noting that rates were not directly comparable across countries. Many countries had higher excess mortality in 2022 compared with previous years. Mauritius showed a significant excess mortality for the first time in 2022. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths relative to total deaths decreased in 2022 for most countries, except Australia. Governmental control measures and vaccinations were associated with reduced excess mortality in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

conclusionThe study reveals sustained excess mortality throughout 2022. Excess deaths were mainly non-COVID-19-related, likely due to displaced mortality or to broader long-term impacts of the pandemic response. Governmental control policies and vaccination efforts were associated with lower excess mortality. These findings provide critical insights into pandemic mortality dynamics and emphasize the need for continued vigilance and adaptive public health strategies.

Indexed as

COVID-19Global HealthMortalityCause of DeathHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Vaccinationall-cause mortalityCOVID-19excess mortalitygovernmental control measuresindirect mortalityvaccination

Identifiers

PMID40492564
PMCPMC12150023

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.