ArticleEuropean journal of medical research2025
Prediction model for unplanned extubation of thoracoabdominal drainage tube in postoperative inpatients: a retrospective study.
Article in European journal of medical research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIt is crucial to identify the risk factors for unplanned extubation (UEX) in thoracoabdominal drainage tubes as early as possible and establish applicable risk prediction model to reduce the incidence of UEX.
methodsA retrospective survey of patients who underwent Thoracoabdominal drainage tubes placement at a tertiary hospital was conducted in Zhejiang Province, China, between January 2020 and January 2023. A training set was established to build the predictive model and conduct internal validation, which was assessed for discrimination using ROC curves and for Calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and Calibration curves. A nomogram was constructed to visually present the results of the logistic regression analysis. An external validation dataset was created for assessing the external validation of the model.
resultsa total of 2220 patients were enrolled. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that negative pressure ball drainage, adhesive fixation method, self-care ability (self-care vs. complete dependence), self-care ability (partial dependence vs. complete dependence), and Thoracoabdominal drainage tubes were statistically significant factors associated with UEX (P < 0.05).The predictive model equation was as follows: a = 0.95-1.66 × drainage method + 2.45 × fixation method -4.17 × self-care ability (self-care vs. complete dependence) -2.79 × self- care ability (partial dependence vs. complete dependence).In the internal validation, the AUC was 0.897 (95% CI = 0.87-0.92; P < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 0.75 and specificity of 0.93, indicating a high level of discrimination for the model. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a chi-square (χ
conclusionThe predictive model for the risk of unplanned extubation of thoracoabdominal drainage tubes in postoperative patients demonstrates good discrimination and Calibration. It can provide reference for clinical nursing staff in predicting the risk and early development of personalized preventive strategies for drainage tube UEX.
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