Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40490026›Full record

SynthesisDiabetes & metabolism journal2025

Ultra-Processed Food Intake and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.

Yujin Kim, Yoonkyoung Cho, Jin Eui Kim, Dong Hoon Lee, Hannah Oh

Erratum issued Registry-linked trialAbstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Diabetes & metabolism journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. It is linked to trial NCT07175701 (Effects of Ultra-processed Food Reduction Intervention on Postprandial Glucose and Glycemic Variability in Korean Young Adults), which is not on this map. Cited by 8 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07175701 narecruitingnot on this map

Effects of Ultra-processed Food Reduction Intervention on Postprandial Glucose and Glycemic Variability in Korean Young Adults: Study Protocol for the ULTRA-CGM Randomized Controlled Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorKorea UniversityRan2025 to 2026Enrolled50ConditionsPostprandial Glucose, Glucose Levels, HyperglycemiasArms40-minute one-on-one dietary counseling and nutrition education aimed at reducing ultra-processed food consumption, Standard dietary counseling and nutrition education based on national guidelines
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Yujin KimInterdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Korea.
Yoonkyoung ChoInterdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Korea.
Jin Eui KimInterdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Korea.
Dong Hoon LeeDepartment of Sport Industry Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.
Hannah OhInterdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Korea.

Funding

Korea University K2402691National Research Foundation of Korea 2023S1A5C2A03095169National Research Foundation of Korea RS-2025-00563263
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgruoundAlthough some studies suggest a positive association between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), little is known about the exact shape and risks associated with different units (percentage of g/day, absolute g/day, serving/day) of UPF intake and whether the association is independent of diet quality, total energy intake, and body mass index (BMI).

methodsProspective studies published through January 2024 were identified by searching PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using random-effects models. A nonlinear dose-response meta-analysis was conducted using restricted cubic spline analysis.

resultsAfter screening 569 publications, a total of 12 prospective cohort studies were included. Comparing the highest vs. lowest categories of intake, summary RR for T2DM risk was 1.48 (95% CI, 1.36 to 1.61). Higher summary RRs were observed among studies from Europe and North America. Among individual UPF subgroups, processed meats (summary RR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.54) were positively associated, whereas ultra-processed cereals and breads (0.98; 95% CI, 0.97 to 0.99) and packaged savory snacks (0.92; 95% CI, 0.88 to 0.95) were inversely associated. The summary RRs associated with every 10% (of g/day), 100-g/day, and 1-serving/day increase in UPF intake were 1.14 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.17), 1.05 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06), and 1.04 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.05), respectively. The dose-response curve for absolute g/d intake suggested nonlinearity, showing a steeper risk increase approximately at >300 g/day. The associations persisted after adjustment for diet quality, energy intake, or BMI.

conclusionOur data suggest that UPF intake increases diabetes risk, with a potential threshold effect at 300 g/day.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2DietFast FoodsBody Mass IndexEnergy IntakeFood, ProcessedHumansProspective StudiesRisk FactorsDiabetes mellitusDiabetes mellitus, type 2Diet, diabeticFood, processedMetabolic diseases

Identifiers

PMID40490026
PMCPMC12436045

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.