Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40489511›Full record

ArticlePLoS genetics2025

Environmental data provide marginal benefit for predicting climate adaptation.

Forrest Li, Daniel J Gates, Edward S Buckler, Matthew B Hufford, Garrett M Janzen, Rubén Rellán-Álvarez, Fausto Rodríguez-Zapata, J Alberto Romero Navarro, Ruairidh J H Sawers, Samantha J Snodgrass and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS genetics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Harnessing artificial intelligence in plant breeding: innovations in digital phenotyping and breeding methodologies.TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik · 2026
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Local Climate Adaptation in Chinese Indigenous Pig Genomes.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Forrest LiDepartment of Evolution and Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2965-2494
Daniel J GatesDepartment of Evolution and Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
Edward S BucklerInstitute for Genomic Diversity, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America.
Matthew B HuffordDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, United States of America.
Garrett M JanzenDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3103-1427
Rubén Rellán-ÁlvarezDepartment of Molecular and Structural Biochemistry and Plant Sciences Initiative, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6843-3716
Fausto Rodríguez-ZapataDepartment of Molecular and Structural Biochemistry and Plant Sciences Initiative, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8088-1113
J Alberto Romero NavarroInstitute for Genomic Diversity, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America.
Ruairidh J H SawersDepartment of Plant Science, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
Samantha J SnodgrassDepartment of Evolution and Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9209-6051
Kai SonderCIMMYT, El Batan, Texcoco, Estado de Mexico, Mexico.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9672-5361
Martha C WillcoxCIMMYT, El Batan, Texcoco, Estado de Mexico, Mexico.
Sarah J HearneCIMMYT, El Batan, Texcoco, Estado de Mexico, Mexico.
Jeffrey Ross-IbarraDepartment of Evolution and Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1656-4954
Daniel E RuncieDepartment of Plant Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3008-9312

Funding

Gates Foundation INV-030574
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change poses a major challenge for both natural and cultivated species. Genomic tools are increasingly used in both conservation and breeding to identify adaptive loci that can be used to guide management in future climates. Here, we study the utility of climate and genomic data for identifying promising alleles using common gardens of a large, geographically diverse sample of traditional maize varieties to evaluate multiple approaches. First, we used genotype data to predict environmental characteristics of germplasm collections to identify varieties that may be pre-adapted to target environments. Second, we used environmental GWAS (envGWAS) to identify loci associated with historical divergence along climatic gradients. Finally, we compared the value of environmental data and envGWAS-prioritized loci to genomic data for prioritizing traditional varieties. We find that maize yield traits are best predicted by genome-wide relatedness and population structure, and that incorporating envGWAS-identified variants or environment-of-origin data provide little additional predictive information. While our results suggest that environmental data provide limited benefit in predicting fitness-related phenotypes, environmental GWAS is nonetheless a potentially powerful approach to identify individual novel loci associated with adaptation, especially when coupled with high density genotyping.

Indexed as

Adaptation, PhysiologicalClimate ChangeZea maysAllelesEnvironmentGenome, PlantGenome-Wide Association StudyGenotypePhenotypePolymorphism, Single NucleotideQuantitative Trait Loci

Identifiers

PMID40489511
PMCPMC12173371

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC0
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.