Variance in C. elegans gut bacterial load suggests complex host-microbe dynamics.

Variation in bacterial composition inside a host is a result of complex dynamics of microbial community assembly, but little is known about these dynamics. To deconstruct the factors that contribute to this variation, we used a combination of experimental and modeling approaches. We found that demographic stochasticity and stationary heterogeneity in the host carrying capacity or bacterial growth rate are insufficient to explain quantitatively the variation observed in our empirical data. Instead, we found that the data can be understood if the host-bacteria system can be viewed as stochastically switching between high and low growth rates phenotypes. This suggests the dynamics are significantly more complex than logistic growth used in canonical models of microbiome assembly. We develop mathematical models of this process that can explain various aspects of our data. We highlight the limitations of snapshot data in describing variation in host-associated communities and the importance of using time-series data along with mathematical models to understand microbial dynamics within a host.