Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40487680›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental science and ecotechnology2025

Shifting regional development scenarios amplify legacy phosphorus threats to water quality.

Wei Zhan, Yedong Gao, Haoran Zhang, Yu Tian, Yanan Zou, Xiang Li, Huihang Sun, Lipin Li, Yaruo Jin, Jiaxin Cao and 2 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental science and ecotechnology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Wei ZhanState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Yedong GaoState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Haoran ZhangState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Yu TianState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Yanan ZouChina Construction Power and Environment Engineering Co., Ltd., Nanjing, 210012, China.
Xiang LiChina Construction Power and Environment Engineering Co., Ltd., Nanjing, 210012, China.
Huihang SunState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Lipin LiState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Yaruo JinHeilongjiang Institute of Energy and Environment, Harbin, 150001, China.
Jiaxin CaoState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Yiming LiuState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
Nanqi RenState Key Laboratory of Urban-rural Water Resource & Environment (SKLUWRE), School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Legacy phosphorus, accumulated from past anthropogenic activities, poses persistent and complex threats to global water quality. Despite extensive efforts to control phosphorus inputs, legacy phosphorus can persist for decades and undermine restoration goals. Emerging evidence suggests that shifts in regional development patterns profoundly reshape the dynamics and environmental risks of legacy phosphorus accumulation and mobilization. However, the mechanisms by which development pattern shifts reshape legacy phosphorus trajectories remain poorly understood. Here we show the complex pathways linking development-driven land-use changes, biogeochemical buffering capacities, and legacy phosphorus mobilization through an integrative modeling framework that couples developmental shift coefficients, anthropogenic phosphorus inventories, and riverine time-lag modeling to diagnose and predict long-term legacy phosphorus risks. Using the Songhua River as a case study, our results reveal that shifts from industrial to agricultural dominance significantly amplify legacy phosphorus accumulation by 86 times. Consequently, legacy phosphorus accounts for 65.4 %-69.9 %, surpassing current-year inputs and becoming the primary driver of riverine pollution. Furthermore, we demonstrate that development shifts systematically alter the dominant controlling factors, from fossil fuel emissions and drainage infrastructure to soil retention characteristics and agricultural practices, reshaping mitigation priorities. Our framework provides a generalizable methodology for quantifying legacy phosphorus risks under dynamic development patterns, offering immediate applications for water quality management. More broadly, this framework offers critical insights that can guide sustainable management strategies for linking evolving regional development patterns with long-term ecological restoration.

Indexed as

Legacy phosphorusRegional development pattern shiftRiverine pollution riskSustainable management strategiesTime-lagged response

Identifiers

PMID40487680
PMCPMC12141645

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LicenceCC BY
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.